Week 3 College Football Predictions

All 57 games, in kickoff order. A Model Pick is the side the model lands on against the line and total. Green won, red lost. Model Picks aren’t bets. The games I bet are Backdoor Cover Picks. Every result is graded at DraftKings’ closing line, not the line when the pick went up.

Final	Matchup	Proj Line	Closing Line	Proj Total	Closing Total	Model Picks
Thursday, Sep 17
13–27Final	Syracuse Pittsburgh 7:30 PM ESPN	Pittsburgh −11.5	Pittsburgh −10.5	—	—	Pittsburgh −10.5
Friday, Sep 18
33–20Final	Miami Wake Forest 7:30 PM ESPN	Miami −26.2	Miami −20.5	—	—	Miami −20.5
26–28Final	Houston Texas Tech 8:00 PM FOXRead the breakdown	Texas Tech −17.3	Texas Tech −7.5	—	—	Texas Tech −7.5
Saturday, Sep 19
14–22Final	Coastal Carolina Delaware 11:30 AM CBSSN	Delaware −11.5	Delaware −4.5	—	—	Delaware −4.5
7–41Final	Akron Minnesota 12:00 PM BTN	Minnesota −24.3	Minnesota −22.5	—	—	Akron +22.5
24–17Final	Arizona State Kansas 12:00 PM FS1Read the breakdown	Kansas −3.4	Arizona State −5.5	—	—	Kansas +5.5
7–55Final	Bowling Green Iowa State 12:00 PM ESPNU	Iowa State −31.7	Iowa State −22.5	—	—	Iowa State −22.5
13–55Final	Buffalo Penn State 12:00 PM BTN	Penn State −23.6	Penn State −39.5	—	—	Buffalo +39.5
45–17Final	Georgia Arkansas 12:00 PM ABCRead the breakdown	Georgia −31.3	Georgia −24.5	—	—	Georgia −24.5
3–59Final	Kent State Ohio State 12:00 PM FOX	Ohio State −35.4	Ohio State −52.5	—	—	Kent State +52.5
20–28Final	North Carolina Clemson 12:00 PM ESPNRead the breakdown	Clemson −7.7	Clemson −3	—	—	Clemson −3.0
35–49Final	North Texas Texas State 12:00 PM USA Net	Texas State −9.2	Texas State −3	—	—	Texas State −3.0
20–31Final	Tulane Kansas State 12:00 PM ESPN2	Kansas State −19.5	Kansas State −20.5	—	—	Tulane +20.5
10–54Final	Eastern Michigan Wisconsin 12:30 PM Peacock	Wisconsin −15.9	Wisconsin −23.5	—	—	Eastern Michigan +23.5
31–35Final	NC State Vanderbilt 12:45 PM SEC Network	Vanderbilt −13.8	Vanderbilt −3	—	—	Vanderbilt −3.0
10–24Final	Wyoming Central Michigan 1:00 PM ESPN+	Wyoming −5.6	Wyoming −1.5	—	—	Wyoming −1.5
48–49Final	Temple Toledo 3:00 PM CBSSN	Toledo −19.1	Toledo −4.5	—	—	Toledo −4.5
36–50Final	Florida State Alabama 3:30 PM ABCRead the breakdown	Alabama −27.3	Alabama −18.5	—	—	Alabama −18.5
31–21Final	Kentucky Texas A&M 3:30 PM ESPNRead the breakdown	Texas A&M −26.9	Texas A&M −16.5	—	—	Texas A&M −16.5
31–35Final	Miami (OH) Cincinnati 3:30 PM ESPN+	Cincinnati −22.9	Cincinnati −14.5	—	—	Cincinnati −14.5
31–41Final	SMU Louisville 3:30 PM ESPN2Read the breakdown	Louisville −2.3	Louisville −3	—	—	Louisville −3.0
42–35Final	USC Rutgers 3:30 PM CBSRead the breakdown	USC −25.5	USC −21	—	—	USC −21.0
17–52Final	UTEP Michigan 3:30 PM BTN	Michigan −24.5	Michigan −34.5	—	—	UTEP +34.5
0–33Final	Utah State Utah 3:30 PM FOX	Utah −19.9	Utah −26.5	—	—	Utah State +26.5
15–51Final	Ball State Liberty 4:00 PM ESPN+	Liberty −15.4	Liberty −14.5	—	—	Liberty −14.5
19–36Final	Louisiana Tech Baylor 4:00 PM ESPNU	Baylor −15.1	Baylor −20.5	—	—	Louisiana Tech +20.5
7–35Final	Stanford Duke 4:00 PM CW	Duke −17.1	Duke −9.5	—	—	Duke −9.5
0–38Final	Western Kentucky Indiana 4:00 PM Peacock	Indiana −41.8	Indiana −44.5	—	—	Western Kentucky +44.5
41–34Final	Mississippi State South Carolina 4:15 PM SEC NetworkRead the breakdown	South Carolina −14.5	South Carolina −3	—	—	South Carolina −3.0
21–26Final	Charlotte App State 6:00 PM ESPN+	App State −24.5	App State −16.5	—	—	App State −16.5
20–17Final	East Carolina Old Dominion 6:00 PM ESPN+	Old Dominion −10.6	Old Dominion −2.5	—	—	Old Dominion −2.5
10–16Final	Florida International Florida Atlantic 6:00 PM ESPN+	Florida Atlantic −12.6	Florida Atlantic −5.5	—	—	Florida Atlantic −5.5
30–24Final	Marshall Missouri State 6:30 PM CBSSN	Missouri State −6.8	Marshall −4	—	—	Missouri State +4.0
44–39Final	Florida Auburn 7:00 PM ESPNRead the breakdown	Florida −3.1	Florida −2.5	—	—	Florida −2.5
27–31Final	Georgia Southern Jacksonville State 7:00 PM ESPN+	Jacksonville State −6.8	Jacksonville State −3.5	—	—	Jacksonville State −3.5
30–44Final	Georgia State UCF 7:00 PM ESPN+	UCF −20.1	UCF −17.5	—	—	UCF −17.5
20–27Final	Nevada Middle Tennessee 7:00 PM ESPN+	Nevada −12.6	Nevada −3.5	—	—	Nevada −3.5
36–41Final	Ohio South Alabama 7:00 PM ESPN+	South Alabama −12.7	South Alabama −7	—	—	South Alabama −7.0
17–27Final	Troy Missouri 7:00 PM SECN+	Missouri −21.4	Missouri −26.5	—	—	Troy +26.5
48–20Final	UConn Southern Miss 7:00 PM ESPN+	UConn −7.7	UConn −3.5	—	—	UConn −3.5
28–21Final	Western Michigan Rice 7:00 PM ESPN+	Western Michigan −19.8	Western Michigan −8.5	—	—	Western Michigan −8.5
41–23Final	BYU Colorado State 7:30 PM CBS	BYU −16.0	BYU −17.5	—	—	Colorado State +17.5
7–41Final	Colorado Northwestern 7:30 PM FOX	Northwestern −9.9	Northwestern −3.5	—	—	Northwestern −3.5
24–32Final	LSU Ole Miss 7:30 PM ABCRead the breakdown	LSU −11.1	LSU −3	—	—	LSU −3.0
10–27Final	Michigan State Notre Dame 7:30 PM NBCRead the breakdown	Notre Dame −24.0	Notre Dame −28.5	—	—	Michigan State +28.5
6–14Final	New Mexico Oklahoma 7:30 PM ESPN2	Oklahoma −12.1	Oklahoma −21.5	—	—	New Mexico +21.5
35–26Final	Virginia Tech Maryland 7:30 PM FS1Read the breakdown	Maryland −0.4	Virginia Tech −2.5	—	—	Maryland +2.5
38–27Final	West Virginia Virginia 7:30 PM ACC NetworkRead the breakdown	Virginia −21.6	Virginia −10.5	—	—	Virginia −10.5
9–42Final	Kennesaw State Tennessee 7:45 PM SEC Network	Tennessee −28.4	Tennessee −35.5	—	—	Kennesaw State +35.5
7–31Final	Arkansas State TCU 8:00 PM ESPNU	TCU −30.4	TCU −18.5	—	—	TCU −18.5
14–21Final	UAB Louisiana 8:00 PM ESPN+	Louisiana −20.7	Louisiana −7	—	—	PLouisiana −7.0
6–30Final	UTSA Texas 8:00 PM SECN+	Texas −19.0	Texas −29.5	—	—	UTSA +29.5
26–13Final	James Madison San Diego State 10:00 PM CW	San Diego State −0.3	San Diego State −3	—	—	James Madison +3.0
31–10Final	North Dakota State Sacramento State 10:30 PM ESPN	North Dakota State −18.3	North Dakota State −26.5	—	—	Sacramento State +26.5
17–42Final	Northern Illinois Arizona 10:30 PM TNT	Arizona −27.3	Arizona −34.5	—	—	Northern Illinois +34.5
26–10Final	Fresno State San José State 11:00 PM FS1	Fresno State −8.4	Fresno State −4	—	—	Fresno State −4.0
38–52Final	Purdue UCLA 11:00 PM BTNRead the breakdown	UCLA −29.1	UCLA −13.5	—	—	UCLA −13.5

Game	Proj spread	Proj total	Model picksat final line
Thursday, Sep 17
SYRPITT Final 13–27	PITT −11.5	—	PITT −10.5
Friday, Sep 18
MIAWAKE Final 33–20	MIA −26.2	—	MIA −20.5
HOUTTU Final 26–28 Breakdown	TTU −17.3	—	TTU −7.5
Saturday, Sep 19
CCUDEL Final 14–22	DEL −11.5	—	DEL −4.5
AKRMINN Final 7–41	MINN −24.3	—	AKR +22.5
ASUKU Final 24–17 Breakdown	KU −3.4	—	KU +5.5
BGSUISU Final 7–55	ISU −31.7	—	ISU −22.5
BUFPSU Final 13–55	PSU −23.6	—	BUF +39.5
UGAARK Final 45–17 Breakdown	UGA −31.3	—	UGA −24.5
KENTOSU Final 3–59	OSU −35.4	—	KENT +52.5
UNCCLEM Final 20–28 Breakdown	CLEM −7.7	—	CLEM −3.0
UNTTXST Final 35–49	TXST −9.2	—	TXST −3.0
TULNKSU Final 20–31	KSU −19.5	—	TULN +20.5
EMUWIS Final 10–54	WIS −15.9	—	EMU +23.5
NCSUVAN Final 31–35	VAN −13.8	—	VAN −3.0
WYOCMU Final 10–24	WYO −5.6	—	WYO −1.5
TEMTOL Final 48–49	TOL −19.1	—	TOL −4.5
FSUALA Final 36–50 Breakdown	ALA −27.3	—	ALA −18.5
UKTA&M Final 31–21 Breakdown	TA&M −26.9	—	TA&M −16.5
M-OHCIN Final 31–35	CIN −22.9	—	CIN −14.5
SMULOU Final 31–41 Breakdown	LOU −2.3	—	LOU −3.0
USCRUTG Final 42–35 Breakdown	USC −25.5	—	USC −21.0
UTEPMICH Final 17–52	MICH −24.5	—	UTEP +34.5
USUUTAH Final 0–33	UTAH −19.9	—	USU +26.5
BALLLIB Final 15–51	LIB −15.4	—	LIB −14.5
LTBAY Final 19–36	BAY −15.1	—	LT +20.5
STANDUKE Final 7–35	DUKE −17.1	—	DUKE −9.5
WKUIU Final 0–38	IU −41.8	—	WKU +44.5
MSSTSC Final 41–34 Breakdown	SC −14.5	—	SC −3.0
CLTAPP Final 21–26	APP −24.5	—	APP −16.5
ECUODU Final 20–17	ODU −10.6	—	ODU −2.5
FIUFAU Final 10–16	FAU −12.6	—	FAU −5.5
MRSHMOST Final 30–24	MOST −6.8	—	MOST +4.0
FLAAUB Final 44–39 Breakdown	FLA −3.1	—	FLA −2.5
GASOJXST Final 27–31	JXST −6.8	—	JXST −3.5
GASTUCF Final 30–44	UCF −20.1	—	UCF −17.5
NEVMTSU Final 20–27	NEV −12.6	—	NEV −3.5
OHIOUSA Final 36–41	USA −12.7	—	USA −7.0
TROYMIZ Final 17–27	MIZ −21.4	—	TROY +26.5
CONNUSM Final 48–20	CONN −7.7	—	CONN −3.5
WMURICE Final 28–21	WMU −19.8	—	WMU −8.5
BYUCSU Final 41–23	BYU −16.0	—	CSU +17.5
COLONU Final 7–41	NU −9.9	—	NU −3.5
LSUMISS Final 24–32 Breakdown	LSU −11.1	—	LSU −3.0
MSUND Final 10–27 Breakdown	ND −24.0	—	MSU +28.5
UNMOU Final 6–14	OU −12.1	—	UNM +21.5
VTMD Final 35–26 Breakdown	MD −0.4	—	MD +2.5
WVUUVA Final 38–27 Breakdown	UVA −21.6	—	UVA −10.5
KENNTENN Final 9–42	TENN −28.4	—	KENN +35.5
ARSTTCU Final 7–31	TCU −30.4	—	TCU −18.5
UABUL Final 14–21	UL −20.7	—	PUL −7.0
UTSATEX Final 6–30	TEX −19.0	—	UTSA +29.5
JMUSDSU Final 26–13	SDSU −0.3	—	JMU +3.0
NDSUSAC Final 31–10	NDSU −18.3	—	SAC +26.5
NIUARIZ Final 17–42	ARIZ −27.3	—	NIU +34.5
FRESSJSU Final 26–10	FRES −8.4	—	FRES −4.0
PURUCLA Final 38–52 Breakdown	UCLA −29.1	—	UCLA −13.5

How the model is doing. 203–178–7 against the spread (53.3%), 130–101 on totals (56.3%) and 285–103 straight up (73.5%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.