Iowa vs Ohio State Prediction: Will Ohio State Cover -14.5?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Ohio State -3.59 for Ohio State at Iowa, 10.9 points off the market’s Ohio State -14.5, and gives Ohio State a 59% win probability.
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What this tells us
My model is less bullish on Ohio State than the market is. I've got them winning by 4 points, but the market has them favored by 14.5, so there's a real gap between how much I like them and how much the market does. Both of us think Ohio State wins, just not close to the same degree.
The model's side at the current line. It isn't a bet. I only bet a small share of the model's picks.
About this gap
Games with a gap over 10 points covered 53.0% of the time in the backtest (181 games).
| Model vs market | Cover % | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 0–3 pts | 51.4% | 883 |
| 3–6 pts | 53.9% | 616 |
| 6–10 pts | 54.6% | 401 |
| 10+ pts (this game) | 53.0% | 181 |
Backtest: every game, weeks 2+ of 2023–25.
Weather at kickoff
No significant weather expected.
How the number is built
The model rates every FBS team on efficiency, adjusted for opponent, and refits every week. It predicts a score, which becomes a spread and a total. Backdoor Cover Picks are the few games I bet.
My track record starts with the 2026 season. Picks are posted before kickoff and graded once the game finishes.
Common questions
Who does the model project to win Iowa vs Ohio State?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Ohio State to win, with a 59% win probability.
What is the model’s predicted spread for Ohio State at Iowa?
The model projects Ohio State -3.59 and the market has Ohio State -14.5, a gap of 10.9 points.
What side does the model favor against the spread?
Iowa +14.5, at the current number. Backdoor Cover Picks may still pass on this game.
Recent meetings
How the model is doing. 114–102–1 against the spread (52.8%), 35–25 on totals (58.3%) and 168–49 straight up (77.4%) on every game this season.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Is Ohio State at Iowa one of my picks? Subscribers see whether I’m betting it, and if so the side, the line and a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.
Season predictions: Ohio State and Iowa.
Published Sep 30, 2026. Numbers refreshed Oct 2, 2026.