Iowa Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Iowa to finish 8-4 in 2026, with 7.9 expected wins. Down 0.2 wins from the preseason projection. Iowa makes the 12-team Playoff in 7% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Iowa a <1% chance to win the Big Ten outright. The model has picked 5 of 6 Iowa games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Iowa earns a first-round bye in <1% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Iowa. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5Won40-0
- Week 2Sat Sep 12
vs Iowa StateWon16-13 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
vs Northern IowaWon55-0 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
at MichiganWon20-19 - Week 5Sat Oct 3
vs Ohio StateLost14-31 - Week 6Fri Oct 9
at WashingtonWon41-24 - Week 8Sat Oct 24
at MinnesotaLost10-13 - Week 9Sat Oct 31
vs Wisconsin56% chance Iowa wins - Week 10Sat Nov 7
at Northwestern46% chance Iowa wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
vs Purdue76% chance Iowa wins - Week 12Sat Nov 21
at Illinois62% chance Iowa wins - Week 13Fri Nov 27
vs Nebraska54% chance Iowa wins
How many games Iowa wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 8-4 (35% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 8.1 in the preseason to 7.9 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.