Week 5 College Football Predictions

All 56 games, in kickoff order. A Model Pick is the side the model lands on against the line and total. Green won, red lost. Model Picks aren’t bets. The games I bet are Backdoor Cover Picks.

Final	Matchup	Proj Line	Final Line	Proj Total	Final Total	Model Picks
Thursday, Oct 1
13–34Final	Western Kentucky New Mexico State 8:00 PM CBSSN	New Mexico State −4.6	New Mexico State −1.5	58.9	55.5	New Mexico State −1.5Over 55.5
45–44Final	North Texas Tulsa 9:00 PM ESPN	North Texas −6.1	North Texas −3.0	54.9	56.5	North Texas −3.0Under 56.5
Friday, Oct 2
30–14Final	Liberty Delaware 7:00 PM CBSSN	Liberty −10.3	Liberty −7.5	54.7	51.5	Liberty −7.5Over 51.5
35–33Final	Pittsburgh Virginia Tech 7:00 PM ESPN	Pittsburgh −10.5	Virginia Tech −2.5	55.1	54.5	Pittsburgh +2.5Over 54.5
13–34Final	Penn State Northwestern 8:00 PM FOXRead the breakdown	Penn State −9.2	Penn State −2.5	53.7	46.5	Penn State −2.5Over 46.5
Saturday, Oct 3
59–8Final	Memphis Charlotte 11:00 AM ESPN+	Memphis −13.5	Memphis −50.5	57.4	53.5	Charlotte +50.5Over 53.5
56–23Final	Alabama Mississippi State 12:00 PM ABCRead the breakdown	Alabama −10.6	Alabama −5.5	58.9	62.5	Alabama −5.5Under 62.5
16–25Final	Boston College SMU 12:00 PM CW	SMU −19.4	SMU −21.5	50.3	55.5	Boston College +21.5Under 55.5
14–20Final	Michigan Minnesota 12:00 PM FOXRead the breakdown	Michigan −15.2	Michigan −6.5	45.6	41.5	Michigan −6.5Over 41.5
0–55Final	Middle Tennessee Kansas 12:00 PM ESPNU	Kansas −16.3	Kansas −21.5	56.0	50.5	Middle Tennessee +21.5Over 50.5
9–14Final	Navy Air Force 12:00 PM CBS	Air Force −4.3	Air Force −3.0	54.4	45.5	Air Force −3.0Over 45.5
37–26Final	Notre Dame North Carolina 12:00 PM ESPNRead the breakdown	Notre Dame −21.8	Notre Dame −21.5	47.6	46.5	Notre Dame −21.5Over 46.5
3–57Final	Stanford Wake Forest 12:00 PM ACC Network	Wake Forest −25.7	Wake Forest −14.5	53.3	54.5	Wake Forest −14.5Under 54.5
42–41Final	Syracuse UConn 12:00 PM CBSSN	UConn −5.8	Syracuse −6.5	55.5	51.5	UConn +6.5Over 51.5
17–27Final	UCF Houston 12:00 PM ESPN2	Houston −8.4	Houston −10.5	47.2	50.5	UCF +10.5Under 50.5
42–45Final	West Virginia Iowa State 12:00 PM TNT	West Virginia −1.8	Iowa State −2.5	57.1	53.5	West Virginia +2.5Over 53.5
3–31Final	Michigan State Wisconsin 12:30 PM BTNRead the breakdown	Wisconsin −5.2	Wisconsin −8.5	45.8	43.5	Michigan State +8.5Over 43.5
14–38Final	Vanderbilt Georgia 12:45 PM SEC NetworkRead the breakdown	Georgia −16.4	Georgia −25.5	51.4	50.5	Vanderbilt +25.5Over 50.5
20–17Final	Western Michigan Buffalo 1:00 PM ESPN+	Western Michigan −11.6	Western Michigan −12.5	49.1	45.5	Buffalo +12.5Over 45.5
39–24Final	Toledo Ball State 2:00 PM ESPN+	Toledo −25.0	Toledo −21.5	53.8	51.5	Toledo −21.5Over 51.5
17–41Final	Akron Central Michigan 3:30 PM ESPN+	Central Michigan −2.5	Central Michigan −6.5	49.3	47.5	Akron +6.5Over 47.5
14–24Final	Auburn Tennessee 3:30 PM ESPNRead the breakdown	Tennessee −6.3	Tennessee −6.5	53.6	54.5	Auburn +6.5Under 54.5
24–20Final	Bowling Green Miami (OH) 3:30 PM ESPN+	Miami (OH) −28.1	Miami (OH) −10.5	55.4	41.5	Miami (OH) −10.5Over 41.5
31–39Final	California UNLV 3:30 PM CBSSN	California −1.6	UNLV −1.5	52.5	51.5	California +1.5Over 51.5
38–14Final	Eastern Michigan Massachusetts 3:30 PM ESPN+	Massachusetts −24.6	Massachusetts −5.5	50.2	48.5	Massachusetts −5.5Over 48.5
17–45Final	Florida Missouri 3:30 PM ABCRead the breakdown	Florida −0.5	Florida −5.5	53.2	57.5	Missouri +5.5Under 57.5
28–31Final	Louisville NC State 3:30 PM ACC Network	NC State −1.5	Louisville −5.5	58.6	56.5	NC State +5.5Over 56.5
13–10Final	Ohio Kent State 3:30 PM ESPN+	Ohio −16.0	Ohio −3.5	52.8	50.5	Ohio −3.5Over 50.5
31–14Final	Ohio State Iowa 3:30 PM CBSRead the breakdown	Ohio State −3.6	Ohio State −14.5	46.6	46.5	Iowa +14.5Over 46.5
10–42Final	Old Dominion Georgia State 3:30 PM ESPN+	Georgia State −1.8	Georgia State −1.5	58.8	51.5	Georgia State −1.5Over 51.5
7–38Final	Virginia Florida State 3:30 PM ESPN2Read the breakdown	Virginia −17.4	Virginia −1.5	55.8	51.5	Virginia −1.5Over 51.5
0–28Final	Wyoming North Dakota State 3:30 PM CW	North Dakota State −10.1	North Dakota State −17.5	48.8	44.5	Wyoming +17.5Over 44.5
17–45Final	Marshall James Madison 3:45 PM ESPNU	James Madison −23.0	James Madison −15.5	57.5	55.5	James Madison −15.5Over 55.5
23–48Final	Maryland Nebraska 4:00 PM FS1	Nebraska −19.6	Nebraska −15.5	57.9	52.5	Nebraska −15.5Over 52.5
7–61Final	UTEP New Mexico 4:00 PM MW+	New Mexico −28.2	New Mexico −23.5	54.1	48.5	New Mexico −23.5Over 48.5
35–34Final	Kentucky South Carolina 4:15 PM SEC Network	South Carolina −2.3	South Carolina −2.5	54.5	52.5	Kentucky +2.5Over 52.5
24–17Final	Purdue Illinois 4:15 PM BTN	Illinois −10.5	Illinois −8.5	68.1	61.5	Illinois −8.5Over 61.5
56–26Final	Oregon State Colorado State 6:00 PM USA Net	Oregon State −10.9	Oregon State −7.0	64.5	62.5	Oregon State −7.0Over 62.5
7–34Final	Arkansas Texas A&M 7:00 PM ESPN2	Texas A&M −11.5	Texas A&M −13.5	49.6	50.5	Arkansas +13.5Under 50.5
17–10Final	BYU TCU 7:00 PM ESPN	BYU −4.4	BYU −5.5	50.0	48.5	TCU +5.5Over 48.5
31–24Final	Georgia Southern Coastal Carolina 7:00 PM ESPN+	Georgia Southern −0.6	Georgia Southern −2.5	54.5	53.5	Coastal Carolina +2.5Over 53.5
35–52Final	UL Monroe South Alabama 7:00 PM ESPN+	South Alabama −13.9	South Alabama −13.5	60.5	56.5	South Alabama −13.5Over 56.5
16–14Final	UTSA Rice 7:00 PM ESPN+	UTSA −0.4	UTSA −11.5	55.1	56.5	Rice +11.5Under 56.5
29–31Final	Army Louisiana Tech 7:30 PM ESPN+	Army −1.6	Louisiana Tech −1.5	53.5	46.5	Army +1.5Over 46.5
41–13Final	Miami Clemson 7:30 PM ABCRead the breakdown	Miami −19.2	Miami −14.5	50.6	49.5	Miami −14.5Over 49.5
17–13Final	Temple South Florida 7:30 PM ESPNU	South Florida −10.2	South Florida −5.5	57.6	50.5	South Florida −5.5Over 50.5
29–7Final	Texas Tech Colorado 7:30 PM FOXRead the breakdown	Texas Tech −17.3	Texas Tech −13.5	50.1	50.5	Texas Tech −13.5Under 50.5
18–37Final	Utah State Boise State 7:30 PM CBSSN	Boise State −23.4	Boise State −18.5	52.1	51.5	Boise State −18.5Over 51.5
21–25Final	Washington USC 7:30 PM NBCRead the breakdown	USC −10.2	USC −7.5	59.5	57.5	USC −7.5Over 57.5
20–23Final	Arkansas State Louisiana 8:00 PM ESPN+	Louisiana −4.9	Louisiana −5.5	52.5	49.5	Arkansas State +5.5Over 49.5
47–15Final	Indiana Rutgers 8:00 PM BTN	Indiana −19.8	Indiana −24.5	58.3	56.5	Rutgers +24.5Over 56.5
26–6Final	Fresno State Washington State 9:30 PM USA Net	Fresno State −2.8	Washington State −2.5	47.5	44.5	Fresno State +2.5Over 44.5
55–19Final	Baylor Arizona State 10:30 PM ESPN	Baylor −0.7	Arizona State −3.5	49.0	48.5	Baylor +3.5Over 48.5
29–31Final	Texas State San Diego State 10:30 PM CW	Texas State −8.2	Texas State −9.5	53.4	57.5	San Diego State +9.5Under 57.5
7–34Final	Cincinnati Arizona 11:00 PM FOXRead the breakdown	Arizona −1.6	Arizona −6.5	64.3	56.5	Cincinnati +6.5Over 56.5
20–16Final	San José State Hawai'i 11:59 PM MW+	San José State −1.6	Hawai'i −2.5	49.1	50.5	San José State +2.5Under 50.5

Game	Proj spread	Proj total	Model picksat final line
Thursday, Oct 1
WKUNMSU Final 13–34	NMSU −4.6	58.9	NMSU −1.5O 55.5
UNTTLSA Final 45–44	UNT −6.1	54.9	UNT −3.0U 56.5
Friday, Oct 2
LIBDEL Final 30–14	LIB −10.3	54.7	LIB −7.5O 51.5
PITTVT Final 35–33	PITT −10.5	55.1	PITT +2.5O 54.5
PSUNU Final 13–34 Breakdown	PSU −9.2	53.7	PSU −2.5O 46.5
Saturday, Oct 3
MEMCLT Final 59–8	MEM −13.5	57.4	CLT +50.5O 53.5
ALAMSST Final 56–23 Breakdown	ALA −10.6	58.9	ALA −5.5U 62.5
BCSMU Final 16–25	SMU −19.4	50.3	BC +21.5U 55.5
MICHMINN Final 14–20 Breakdown	MICH −15.2	45.6	MICH −6.5O 41.5
MTSUKU Final 0–55	KU −16.3	56.0	MTSU +21.5O 50.5
NAVYAF Final 9–14	AF −4.3	54.4	AF −3.0O 45.5
NDUNC Final 37–26 Breakdown	ND −21.8	47.6	ND −21.5O 46.5
STANWAKE Final 3–57	WAKE −25.7	53.3	WAKE −14.5U 54.5
SYRCONN Final 42–41	CONN −5.8	55.5	CONN +6.5O 51.5
UCFHOU Final 17–27	HOU −8.4	47.2	UCF +10.5U 50.5
WVUISU Final 42–45	WVU −1.8	57.1	WVU +2.5O 53.5
MSUWIS Final 3–31 Breakdown	WIS −5.2	45.8	MSU +8.5O 43.5
VANUGA Final 14–38 Breakdown	UGA −16.4	51.4	VAN +25.5O 50.5
WMUBUF Final 20–17	WMU −11.6	49.1	BUF +12.5O 45.5
TOLBALL Final 39–24	TOL −25.0	53.8	TOL −21.5O 51.5
AKRCMU Final 17–41	CMU −2.5	49.3	AKR +6.5O 47.5
AUBTENN Final 14–24 Breakdown	TENN −6.3	53.6	AUB +6.5U 54.5
BGSUM-OH Final 24–20	M-OH −28.1	55.4	M-OH −10.5O 41.5
CALUNLV Final 31–39	CAL −1.6	52.5	CAL +1.5O 51.5
EMUMASS Final 38–14	MASS −24.6	50.2	MASS −5.5O 48.5
FLAMIZ Final 17–45 Breakdown	FLA −0.5	53.2	MIZ +5.5U 57.5
LOUNCSU Final 28–31	NCSU −1.5	58.6	NCSU +5.5O 56.5
OHIOKENT Final 13–10	OHIO −16.0	52.8	OHIO −3.5O 50.5
OSUIOWA Final 31–14 Breakdown	OSU −3.6	46.6	IOWA +14.5O 46.5
ODUGAST Final 10–42	GAST −1.8	58.8	GAST −1.5O 51.5
UVAFSU Final 7–38 Breakdown	UVA −17.4	55.8	UVA −1.5O 51.5
WYONDSU Final 0–28	NDSU −10.1	48.8	WYO +17.5O 44.5
MRSHJMU Final 17–45	JMU −23.0	57.5	JMU −15.5O 55.5
MDNEB Final 23–48	NEB −19.6	57.9	NEB −15.5O 52.5
UTEPUNM Final 7–61	UNM −28.2	54.1	UNM −23.5O 48.5
UKSC Final 35–34	SC −2.3	54.5	UK +2.5O 52.5
PURILL Final 24–17	ILL −10.5	68.1	ILL −8.5O 61.5
ORSTCSU Final 56–26	ORST −10.9	64.5	ORST −7.0O 62.5
ARKTA&M Final 7–34	TA&M −11.5	49.6	ARK +13.5U 50.5
BYUTCU Final 17–10	BYU −4.4	50.0	TCU +5.5O 48.5
GASOCCU Final 31–24	GASO −0.6	54.5	CCU +2.5O 53.5
ULMUSA Final 35–52	USA −13.9	60.5	USA −13.5O 56.5
UTSARICE Final 16–14	UTSA −0.4	55.1	RICE +11.5U 56.5
ARMYLT Final 29–31	ARMY −1.6	53.5	ARMY +1.5O 46.5
MIACLEM Final 41–13 Breakdown	MIA −19.2	50.6	MIA −14.5O 49.5
TEMUSF Final 17–13	USF −10.2	57.6	USF −5.5O 50.5
TTUCOLO Final 29–7 Breakdown	TTU −17.3	50.1	TTU −13.5U 50.5
USUBOIS Final 18–37	BOIS −23.4	52.1	BOIS −18.5O 51.5
WASHUSC Final 21–25 Breakdown	USC −10.2	59.5	USC −7.5O 57.5
ARSTUL Final 20–23	UL −4.9	52.5	ARST +5.5O 49.5
IURUTG Final 47–15	IU −19.8	58.3	RUTG +24.5O 56.5
FRESWSU Final 26–6	FRES −2.8	47.5	FRES +2.5O 44.5
BAYASU Final 55–19	BAY −0.7	49.0	BAY +3.5O 48.5
TXSTSDSU Final 29–31	TXST −8.2	53.4	SDSU +9.5U 57.5
CINARIZ Final 7–34 Breakdown	ARIZ −1.6	64.3	CIN +6.5O 56.5
SJSUHAW Final 20–16	SJSU −1.6	49.1	SJSU +2.5U 50.5

How the model is doing. 142–128–1 against the spread (52.6%), 69–45 on totals (60.5%) and 208–63 straight up (76.8%) on every game this season.