Louisville vs Florida State Prediction: Will Louisville Cover -3.5?
Early projections. Games after Tuesday night may be updated on Wednesday.
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Louisville -14.36 for Florida State at Louisville, 10.9 points off the market’s Louisville -3.5, and gives Louisville a 82% win probability.
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What this tells us
My model is more bullish on Louisville than the market is. I have them winning by 14 points with an 82% win probability, while the market only has them favored by 3.5. The two of us agree Louisville wins, but I'm much more confident in it.
The model's side at the current line. It isn't a bet. I only bet a small share of the model's picks.
About this gap
Games with a gap over 10 points covered 53.0% of the time in the backtest (181 games).
| Model vs market | Cover % | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 0–3 pts | 51.4% | 883 |
| 3–6 pts | 53.9% | 616 |
| 6–10 pts | 54.6% | 401 |
| 10+ pts (this game) | 53.0% | 181 |
Backtest: every game, weeks 2+ of 2023–25.
Weather at kickoff
No significant weather expected.
How the number is built
The model rates every FBS team on efficiency, adjusted for opponent, and refits every week. It predicts a score, which becomes a spread and a total. Backdoor Cover Picks are the few games I bet.
My track record starts with the 2026 season. Picks are posted before kickoff and graded once the game finishes.
Common questions
Who does the model project to win Louisville vs Florida State?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Louisville to win, with a 82% win probability.
What is the model’s predicted spread for Florida State at Louisville?
The model projects Louisville -14.36 and the market has Louisville -3.5, a gap of 10.9 points.
What side does the model favor against the spread?
Louisville -3.5, at the current number. Backdoor Cover Picks may still pass on this game.
Recent meetings
How the model is doing. 142–128–1 against the spread (52.6%), 69–45 on totals (60.5%) and 208–63 straight up (76.8%) on every game this season.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Is Florida State at Louisville one of my picks? Subscribers see whether I’m betting it, and if so the side, the line and a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.
Season predictions: Florida State and Louisville.
Published Oct 6, 2026. Numbers refreshed Oct 6, 2026.