Week 6 College Football Predictions

Early projections. Games after Tuesday night may be updated on Wednesday.

All 58 games, in kickoff order. A Model Pick is the side the model lands on against the line and total. Model Picks aren’t bets. The games I bet are Backdoor Cover Picks.

Kickoff ET	Matchup	Proj Line	Current Line	Proj Total	Current Total	Model Picks
Tuesday, Oct 6
8:00 PMESPN2	Southern Miss Troy 8:00 PM ESPN2Read the breakdown	Troy −2.6	Troy −10.0	52.2	52.5	Southern Miss +10.0Under 52.5
Wednesday, Oct 7
7:00 PMCBSSN	Jacksonville State Kennesaw State 7:00 PM CBSSN	Jacksonville State −4.7	Jacksonville State −3.0	56.7	49.5	Jacksonville State −3.0Over 49.5
7:30 PMESPN2	New Mexico State Florida International 7:30 PM ESPN2	Florida International −3.2	Florida International −6.5	48.6	47.5	New Mexico State +6.5Over 47.5
Thursday, Oct 8
7:00 PMCBSSN	Missouri State Western Kentucky 7:00 PM CBSSN	Western Kentucky −3.1	Western Kentucky −1.5	55.0	56.5	Western Kentucky −1.5Under 56.5
7:00 PMESPNU	Sam Houston Liberty 7:00 PM ESPNU	Liberty −14.8	Liberty −13.5	57.9	52.5	Liberty −13.5Over 52.5
7:30 PMESPN2	South Alabama Arkansas State 7:30 PM ESPN2Read the breakdown	Arkansas State −8.1	Arkansas State −1.5	64.5	58.5	Arkansas State −1.5Over 58.5
7:30 PMESPN	South Florida UTSA 7:30 PM ESPNRead the breakdown	South Florida −5.2	UTSA −7.0	55.3	50.5	South Florida +7.0Over 50.5
Friday, Oct 9
7:00 PMESPN	Florida State Louisville 7:00 PM ESPNRead the breakdown	Louisville −14.4	Louisville −3.5	60.7	59.5	Louisville −3.5Over 59.5
9:00 PM	Iowa Washington 9:00 PMRead the breakdown	Iowa −3.0	Washington −2.5	42.7	41.5	Iowa +2.5Over 41.5
9:00 PMCW	Washington State Utah State 9:00 PM CW	Utah State −8.3	Utah State −5.5	43.3	43.5	Utah State −5.5Under 43.5
9:00 PMCBSSN	Wyoming San José State 9:00 PM CBSSN	San José State −9.2	San José State −5.5	43.7	43.5	San José State −5.5Over 43.5
10:15 PMESPN	Iowa State BYU 10:15 PM ESPNRead the breakdown	BYU −15.9	BYU −10.5	49.2	46.5	BYU −10.5Over 46.5
Saturday, Oct 10
12:00 PMTNT	Arizona West Virginia 12:00 PM TNT	Arizona −3.5	Arizona −3.5	61.3	61.5	West Virginia +3.5Under 61.5
12:00 PMFOX	Indiana Nebraska 12:00 PM FOX	Indiana −7.2	Indiana −7.5	58.2	50.5	Nebraska +7.5Over 50.5
12:00 PMESPN	North Carolina Pittsburgh 12:00 PM ESPN	Pittsburgh −16.8	Pittsburgh −3.5	51.8	47.5	Pittsburgh −3.5Over 47.5
12:00 PMESPN+	Sacramento State Bowling Green 12:00 PM ESPN+	Sacramento State −12.2	Bowling Green −7.5	46.4	44.5	Sacramento State +7.5Over 44.5
12:00 PMABC	Texas A&M Missouri 12:00 PM ABC	Missouri −6.3	Missouri −3.5	50.3	48.5	Missouri −3.5Over 48.5
12:00 PMCBSSN	Tulane Army 12:00 PM CBSSN	Army −2.8	Army −3.0	57.0	47.5	Tulane +3.0Over 47.5
12:00 PMESPN2	UCF Oklahoma State 12:00 PM ESPN2	UCF −5.2	Oklahoma State −9.5	46.9	53.5	UCF +9.5Under 53.5
12:00 PMCW	Wake Forest NC State 12:00 PM CW	Wake Forest −7.3	Wake Forest −4.0	53.3	59.5	Wake Forest −4.0Under 59.5
12:30 PMBTN	Ball State Northwestern 12:30 PM BTN	Northwestern −30.9	Northwestern −37.5	57.7	52.5	Ball State +37.5Over 52.5
12:45 PMSEC Network	South Carolina Florida 12:45 PM SEC NetworkRead the breakdown	Florida −11.9	Florida −13.5	55.2	61.5	South Carolina +13.5Under 61.5
1:00 PMESPN+	Old Dominion App State 1:00 PM ESPN+	App State −10.0	App State −9.5	49.3	50.5	App State −9.5Under 50.5
2:00 PMESPN+	Miami (OH) Massachusetts 2:00 PM ESPN+	Miami (OH) −1.6	Miami (OH) −2.5	55.6	47.5	Massachusetts +2.5Over 47.5
3:30 PMESPN+	Buffalo Toledo 3:30 PM ESPN+	Toledo −26.9	Toledo −20.5	57.9	54.5	Toledo −20.5Over 54.5
3:30 PMESPN+	Central Michigan Ohio 3:30 PM ESPN+	Ohio −15.2	Ohio −3.0	50.8	46.5	Ohio −3.0Over 46.5
3:30 PMESPN+	Charlotte North Texas 3:30 PM ESPN+	North Texas −25.8	North Texas −28.5	58.0	57.5	Charlotte +28.5Over 57.5
3:30 PMESPN2	Duke Georgia Tech 3:30 PM ESPN2	Duke −3.3	Duke −6.5	52.5	48.5	Georgia Tech +6.5Over 48.5
3:30 PMESPN+	Eastern Michigan Akron 3:30 PM ESPN+	Eastern Michigan −0.2	Eastern Michigan −6.5	53.3	52.5	Akron +6.5Over 52.5
3:30 PMFOX	Houston Kansas State 3:30 PM FOX	Houston −17.3	Kansas State −2.5	56.3	55.5	Houston +2.5Over 55.5
3:30 PMFS1	Illinois Michigan State 3:30 PM FS1	Michigan State −1.1	Illinois −2.5	52.1	48.5	Michigan State +2.5Over 48.5
3:30 PMESPN+	Kent State Western Michigan 3:30 PM ESPN+	Western Michigan −19.3	Western Michigan −13.5	45.4	43.5	Western Michigan −13.5Over 43.5
3:30 PMESPN	Ole Miss Vanderbilt 3:30 PM ESPNRead the breakdown	Vanderbilt −1.5	Ole Miss −9.5	60.9	59.5	Vanderbilt +9.5Over 59.5
3:30 PMNBC	Stanford Notre Dame 3:30 PM NBCRead the breakdown	Notre Dame −38.4	Notre Dame −38.5	53.3	53.5	Stanford +38.5Under 53.5
3:30 PMABC	Texas Oklahoma 3:30 PM ABCRead the breakdown	Texas −2.5	Texas −8.5	41.5	39.5	Oklahoma +8.5Over 39.5
3:30 PMCBSSN	Tulsa Navy 3:30 PM CBSSN	Navy −0.6	Navy −2.5	48.6	48.5	Tulsa +2.5Over 48.5
3:30 PMCBS	UCLA Oregon 3:30 PM CBSRead the breakdown	Oregon −12.7	Oregon −11.5	51.0	58.5	Oregon −11.5Under 58.5
3:30 PMACC Network	Virginia Tech California 3:30 PM ACC Network	Virginia Tech −8.2	Virginia Tech −9.5	58.3	53.5	California +9.5Over 53.5
3:45 PMESPNU	UConn Temple 3:45 PM ESPNU	Temple −0.2	Temple −3.5	55.4	54.5	UConn +3.5Over 54.5
4:00 PMESPN+	Rice East Carolina 4:00 PM ESPN+	East Carolina −14.8	East Carolina −10.0	55.3	47.5	East Carolina −10.0Over 47.5
4:15 PMBTN	Maryland Ohio State 4:15 PM BTNRead the breakdown	Ohio State −32.6	Ohio State −34.5	54.4	56.5	Maryland +34.5Under 56.5
4:15 PMSEC Network	Tennessee Arkansas 4:15 PM SEC NetworkRead the breakdown	Tennessee −8.1	Tennessee −13.5	55.5	50.5	Arkansas +13.5Over 50.5
6:00 PMUSA Net	San Diego State Oregon State 6:00 PM USA Net	Oregon State −20.0	Oregon State −14.5	50.5	53.5	Oregon State −14.5Under 53.5
7:00 PMESPN+	Coastal Carolina Marshall 7:00 PM ESPN+	Coastal Carolina −3.2	Marshall −3.0	60.6	58.5	Coastal Carolina +3.0Over 58.5
7:00 PMESPN	LSU Kentucky 7:00 PM ESPNRead the breakdown	LSU −8.0	LSU −9.5	50.5	52.5	Kentucky +9.5Under 52.5
7:00 PMFS1	Nevada UTEP 7:00 PM FS1	Nevada −8.8	Nevada −9.5	51.8	49.5	UTEP +9.5Over 49.5
7:00 PMCW	North Dakota State UNLV 7:00 PM CW	North Dakota State −4.1	North Dakota State −3.5	53.0	48.5	North Dakota State −3.5Over 48.5
7:00 PMESPN2	UAB Memphis 7:00 PM ESPN2	Memphis −15.6	Memphis −14.0	58.1	57.5	Memphis −14.0Over 57.5
7:30 PMCBSSN	Air Force Northern Illinois 7:30 PM CBSSN	Air Force −16.3	Air Force −7.5	50.2	46.5	Air Force −7.5Over 46.5
7:30 PMABC	Georgia Alabama 7:30 PM ABCRead the breakdown	Alabama −13.1	Alabama −1.5	51.8	52.5	Alabama −1.5Under 52.5
7:30 PMESPNU	James Madison Georgia Southern 7:30 PM ESPNU	James Madison −12.0	James Madison −7.5	55.5	53.5	James Madison −7.5Over 53.5
7:30 PMESPN+	Louisiana Louisiana Tech 7:30 PM ESPN+	Louisiana −0.2	Louisiana Tech −2.5	52.4	48.5	Louisiana +2.5Over 48.5
7:30 PMACC Network	Syracuse Virginia 7:30 PM ACC Network	Virginia −12.9	Virginia −8.5	52.3	50.5	Virginia −8.5Over 50.5
7:30 PMNBC	USC Penn State 7:30 PM NBCRead the breakdown	USC −0.5	Penn State −1.5	54.9	54.5	USC +1.5Over 54.5
8:00 PMBTN	Minnesota Purdue 8:00 PM BTN	Purdue −1.3	Minnesota −2.5	56.6	50.5	Purdue +2.5Over 50.5
9:30 PMFS1	Hawai'i Arizona State 9:30 PM FS1	Arizona State −21.3	Arizona State −20.5	52.2	49.5	Arizona State −20.5Over 49.5
10:15 PMESPN	Kansas Utah 10:15 PM ESPN	Utah −17.3	Utah −15.5	55.3	51.5	Utah −15.5Over 51.5
10:30 PMCW	Boise State Fresno State 10:30 PM CW	Boise State −12.3	Boise State −6.5	51.5	48.5	Boise State −6.5Over 48.5

Game	Proj spread	Proj total	Model picksat current line
Tuesday, Oct 6
USMTROY 8:00 PM ESPN2 Breakdown	TROY −2.6	52.2	USM +10.0Under 52.5
Wednesday, Oct 7
JXSTKENN 7:00 PM CBSSN	JXST −4.7	56.7	JXST −3.0Over 49.5
NMSUFIU 7:30 PM ESPN2	FIU −3.2	48.6	NMSU +6.5Over 47.5
Thursday, Oct 8
MOSTWKU 7:00 PM CBSSN	WKU −3.1	55.0	WKU −1.5Under 56.5
SHSULIB 7:00 PM ESPNU	LIB −14.8	57.9	LIB −13.5Over 52.5
USAARST 7:30 PM ESPN2 Breakdown	ARST −8.1	64.5	ARST −1.5Over 58.5
USFUTSA 7:30 PM ESPN Breakdown	USF −5.2	55.3	USF +7.0Over 50.5
Friday, Oct 9
FSULOU 7:00 PM ESPN Breakdown	LOU −14.4	60.7	LOU −3.5Over 59.5
IOWAWASH 9:00 PM Breakdown	IOWA −3.0	42.7	IOWA +2.5Over 41.5
WSUUSU 9:00 PM CW	USU −8.3	43.3	USU −5.5Under 43.5
WYOSJSU 9:00 PM CBSSN	SJSU −9.2	43.7	SJSU −5.5Over 43.5
ISUBYU 10:15 PM ESPN Breakdown	BYU −15.9	49.2	BYU −10.5Over 46.5
Saturday, Oct 10
ARIZWVU 12:00 PM TNT	ARIZ −3.5	61.3	WVU +3.5Under 61.5
IUNEB 12:00 PM FOX	IU −7.2	58.2	NEB +7.5Over 50.5
UNCPITT 12:00 PM ESPN	PITT −16.8	51.8	PITT −3.5Over 47.5
SACBGSU 12:00 PM ESPN+	SAC −12.2	46.4	SAC +7.5Over 44.5
TA&MMIZ 12:00 PM ABC	MIZ −6.3	50.3	MIZ −3.5Over 48.5
TULNARMY 12:00 PM CBSSN	ARMY −2.8	57.0	TULN +3.0Over 47.5
UCFOKST 12:00 PM ESPN2	UCF −5.2	46.9	UCF +9.5Under 53.5
WAKENCSU 12:00 PM CW	WAKE −7.3	53.3	WAKE −4.0Under 59.5
BALLNU 12:30 PM BTN	NU −30.9	57.7	BALL +37.5Over 52.5
SCFLA 12:45 PM SEC Network Breakdown	FLA −11.9	55.2	SC +13.5Under 61.5
ODUAPP 1:00 PM ESPN+	APP −10.0	49.3	APP −9.5Under 50.5
M-OHMASS 2:00 PM ESPN+	M-OH −1.6	55.6	MASS +2.5Over 47.5
BUFTOL 3:30 PM ESPN+	TOL −26.9	57.9	TOL −20.5Over 54.5
CMUOHIO 3:30 PM ESPN+	OHIO −15.2	50.8	OHIO −3.0Over 46.5
CLTUNT 3:30 PM ESPN+	UNT −25.8	58.0	CLT +28.5Over 57.5
DUKEGT 3:30 PM ESPN2	DUKE −3.3	52.5	GT +6.5Over 48.5
EMUAKR 3:30 PM ESPN+	EMU −0.2	53.3	AKR +6.5Over 52.5
HOUKSU 3:30 PM FOX	HOU −17.3	56.3	HOU +2.5Over 55.5
ILLMSU 3:30 PM FS1	MSU −1.1	52.1	MSU +2.5Over 48.5
KENTWMU 3:30 PM ESPN+	WMU −19.3	45.4	WMU −13.5Over 43.5
MISSVAN 3:30 PM ESPN Breakdown	VAN −1.5	60.9	VAN +9.5Over 59.5
STANND 3:30 PM NBC Breakdown	ND −38.4	53.3	STAN +38.5Under 53.5
TEXOU 3:30 PM ABC Breakdown	TEX −2.5	41.5	OU +8.5Over 39.5
TLSANAVY 3:30 PM CBSSN	NAVY −0.6	48.6	TLSA +2.5Over 48.5
UCLAORE 3:30 PM CBS Breakdown	ORE −12.7	51.0	ORE −11.5Under 58.5
VTCAL 3:30 PM ACC Network	VT −8.2	58.3	CAL +9.5Over 53.5
CONNTEM 3:45 PM ESPNU	TEM −0.2	55.4	CONN +3.5Over 54.5
RICEECU 4:00 PM ESPN+	ECU −14.8	55.3	ECU −10.0Over 47.5
MDOSU 4:15 PM BTN Breakdown	OSU −32.6	54.4	MD +34.5Under 56.5
TENNARK 4:15 PM SEC Network Breakdown	TENN −8.1	55.5	ARK +13.5Over 50.5
SDSUORST 6:00 PM USA Net	ORST −20.0	50.5	ORST −14.5Under 53.5
CCUMRSH 7:00 PM ESPN+	CCU −3.2	60.6	CCU +3.0Over 58.5
LSUUK 7:00 PM ESPN Breakdown	LSU −8.0	50.5	UK +9.5Under 52.5
NEVUTEP 7:00 PM FS1	NEV −8.8	51.8	UTEP +9.5Over 49.5
NDSUUNLV 7:00 PM CW	NDSU −4.1	53.0	NDSU −3.5Over 48.5
UABMEM 7:00 PM ESPN2	MEM −15.6	58.1	MEM −14.0Over 57.5
AFNIU 7:30 PM CBSSN	AF −16.3	50.2	AF −7.5Over 46.5
UGAALA 7:30 PM ABC Breakdown	ALA −13.1	51.8	ALA −1.5Under 52.5
JMUGASO 7:30 PM ESPNU	JMU −12.0	55.5	JMU −7.5Over 53.5
ULLT 7:30 PM ESPN+	UL −0.2	52.4	UL +2.5Over 48.5
SYRUVA 7:30 PM ACC Network	UVA −12.9	52.3	UVA −8.5Over 50.5
USCPSU 7:30 PM NBC Breakdown	USC −0.5	54.9	USC +1.5Over 54.5
MINNPUR 8:00 PM BTN	PUR −1.3	56.6	PUR +2.5Over 50.5
HAWASU 9:30 PM FS1	ASU −21.3	52.2	ASU −20.5Over 49.5
KUUTAH 10:15 PM ESPN	UTAH −17.3	55.3	UTAH −15.5Over 51.5
BOISFRES 10:30 PM CW	BOIS −12.3	51.5	BOIS −6.5Over 48.5

How the model is doing. 142–128–1 against the spread (52.6%), 69–45 on totals (60.5%) and 208–63 straight up (76.8%) on every game this season.