Florida State Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Florida State to finish 5-7 in 2026, with 5.1 expected wins. Down 1.4 wins from the preseason projection. Florida State makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Florida State a 0% chance to win the ACC outright. The model has picked 3 of 6 Florida State games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Florida State earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Florida State. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Won24-27
- Week 1Mon Sep 7
vs SMULost24-27 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
at AlabamaLost36-50 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
vs Central ArkansasWon34-7 - Week 5Sat Oct 3
vs VirginiaWon38-7 - Week 6Fri Oct 9
at LouisvilleLost20-44 - Week 7Sat Oct 17
at MiamiLost35-43 - Week 9Sat Oct 31
vs Clemson56% chance Florida State wins - Week 10Sat Nov 755% chance Florida State wins
- Week 11Fri Nov 13
at Pittsburgh16% chance Florida State wins - Week 12Sat Nov 21
vs NC State58% chance Florida State wins - Week 13Fri Nov 27
vs Florida21% chance Florida State wins
How many games Florida State wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 5-7 (38% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 6.5 in the preseason to 5.1 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.