Florida State Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Florida State to finish 6-6 in 2026, with 6.4 expected wins.
Our statistical model projects Florida State to finish 6-6 in 2026, with 6.4 expected wins. The model gives Florida State a 0% chance to win the ACC outright.
Model called 0 of 2 of Florida State’s games right so far this season.
Game-by-game
Played games show the result and whether the model called it (✓/✗). Upcoming games show win probability.
| Week | Opponent | Result / win prob |
|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs New Mexico State | Lost 24–27 ✗ |
| Wk 1 | vs SMU | Lost 24–27 ✗ |
| Wk 3 | @ Alabama | 8% |
| Wk 4 | vs Central Arkansas | 93% |
| Wk 5 | vs Virginia | 61% |
| Wk 6 | @ Louisville | 32% |
| Wk 7 | @ Miami | 8% |
| Wk 9 | vs Clemson | 80% |
| Wk 10 | @ Boston College | 94% |
| Wk 11 | @ Pittsburgh | 20% |
| Wk 12 | vs NC State | 90% |
| Wk 13 | vs Florida | 7% |
Win-total distribution
What subscribers get
Everything above is the free model. Florida State has a 2% shot at the ACC title game in the model. Subscribers get the full picture — and the picks we actually bet.
New members’ first week is 99¢ — and the first losing week’s on us. 2026 picks verified on Juice Reel.
Projections are model output for informational and entertainment purposes only. Not betting advice. You must be 21 or older, or the legal age where you are. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
© 2026 Backdoor Cover LLC