Louisville Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Louisville to finish 7-5 in 2026, with 7.2 expected wins. Down 0.4 wins from the preseason projection. Louisville makes the 12-team Playoff in <1% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Louisville a <1% chance to win the ACC outright. The model has picked 5 of 6 Louisville games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Louisville earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Louisville. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sun Sep 6
Lost38-41 - Week 2Fri Sep 11
vs VillanovaWon59-13 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
vs SMUWon41-31 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
vs Wake ForestLost27-30 - Week 5Sat Oct 3
at NC StateLost28-31 - Week 6Fri Oct 9Won44-20
- Week 7Sat Oct 17
at SyracuseWon34-26 - Week 9Sat Oct 31
vs Stanford97% chance Louisville wins - Week 10Sat Nov 7
at Georgia Tech77% chance Louisville wins - Week 11Sat Nov 1458% chance Louisville wins
- Week 12Sat Nov 21
vs Pittsburgh46% chance Louisville wins - Week 13Sat Nov 28
at Kentucky41% chance Louisville wins
How many games Louisville wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 7-5 (38% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 7.6 in the preseason to 7.2 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.