Colorado vs Utah Prediction: Will Utah Cover -15.5?
Early projections. These may be updated on Wednesday.
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Utah -22.81 for Utah at Colorado, 7.3 points off the market’s Utah -15.5, and gives Utah a 93% win probability.
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What this tells us
My model is more bullish on Utah than the market is. I have them winning by a bigger margin, and I'm also more confident they win the game outright. The market still favors Utah, so they're not disagreeing on the winner, just how decisively Utah gets there.
The model's side at the current line. It isn't a bet. I only bet a small share of the model's picks.
About this gap
Games with a 6 to 10 point gap covered 54.6% of the time in the backtest (401 games).
| Model vs market | Cover % | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 0–3 pts | 51.4% | 883 |
| 3–6 pts | 53.9% | 616 |
| 6–10 pts (this game) | 54.6% | 401 |
| 10+ pts | 53.0% | 181 |
Backtest: every game, weeks 2+ of 2023–25.
Weather at kickoff
No significant weather expected.
How the number is built
The model rates every FBS team on efficiency, adjusted for opponent, and refits every week. It predicts a score, which becomes a spread and a total. Backdoor Cover Picks are the few games I bet.
My track record starts with the 2026 season. Picks are posted before kickoff and graded once the game finishes.
Common questions
Who does the model project to win Colorado vs Utah?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Utah to win, with a 93% win probability.
What is the model’s predicted spread for Utah at Colorado?
The model projects Utah -22.81 and the market has Utah -15.5, a gap of 7.3 points.
What side does the model favor against the spread?
Utah -15.5, at the current number. Backdoor Cover Picks may still pass on this game.
Recent meetings
How the model is doing. 174–154–1 against the spread (53.0%), 97–75 on totals (56.4%) and 247–82 straight up (75.1%) on every game this season.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Is Utah at Colorado one of my picks? Subscribers see whether I’m betting it, and if so the side, the line and a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.