Colorado Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Colorado to finish 3-9 in 2026, with 3.5 expected wins. Down 1.6 wins from the preseason projection. Colorado makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Colorado a 0% chance to win the Big 12 outright. The model has picked 5 of 6 Colorado games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Colorado earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Colorado. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Thu Sep 3
at Georgia TechWon14-13 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
vs Weber StateWon52-21 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
at NorthwesternLost7-41 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
at BaylorLost13-23 - Week 5Sat Oct 3
vs Texas TechLost7-29 - Week 7Sat Oct 17
vs UtahLost24-27 - Week 8Sat Oct 24Lost24-57
- Week 9Sat Oct 31
vs Kansas State41% chance Colorado wins - Week 10Sat Nov 742% chance Colorado wins
- Week 11Fri Nov 13
vs Houston16% chance Colorado wins - Week 12Sat Nov 21
at Cincinnati24% chance Colorado wins - Week 13Sat Nov 28
vs UCF27% chance Colorado wins
How many games Colorado wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 3-9 (37% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 5.1 in the preseason to 3.5 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.