Kansas State vs Kansas Prediction: Will Kansas State Cover -5.5?
Early projections. These may be updated on Wednesday.
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Kansas -7.73 for Kansas at Kansas State, 13.2 points off the market’s Kansas State -5.5, and gives Kansas a 69% win probability.
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What this tells us
My model has Kansas winning outright, but the market has Kansas State favored. The market is more bullish on Kansas State than my model is, and they disagree on who wins the game.
The model's side at the current line. It isn't a bet. I only bet a small share of the model's picks.
About this gap
Games with a gap over 10 points covered 53.0% of the time in the backtest (181 games).
| Model vs market | Cover % | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 0–3 pts | 51.4% | 883 |
| 3–6 pts | 53.9% | 616 |
| 6–10 pts | 54.6% | 401 |
| 10+ pts (this game) | 53.0% | 181 |
Backtest: every game, weeks 2+ of 2023–25.
Weather at kickoff
There’s no forecast for this kickoff yet.
How the number is built
The model rates every FBS team on efficiency, adjusted for opponent, and refits every week. It predicts a score, which becomes a spread and a total. Backdoor Cover Picks are the few games I bet.
My track record starts with the 2026 season. Picks are posted before kickoff and graded once the game finishes.
Common questions
Who does the model project to win Kansas State vs Kansas?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Kansas to win, with a 69% win probability.
What is the model’s predicted spread for Kansas at Kansas State?
The model projects Kansas -7.73 and the market has Kansas State -5.5, a gap of 13.2 points.
What side does the model favor against the spread?
Kansas +5.5, at the current number. Backdoor Cover Picks may still pass on this game.
Recent meetings
How the model is doing. 174–154–1 against the spread (53.0%), 97–75 on totals (56.4%) and 247–82 straight up (75.1%) on every game this season.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Is Kansas at Kansas State one of my picks? Subscribers see whether I’m betting it, and if so the side, the line and a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.
Season predictions: Kansas and Kansas State.
Published Oct 12, 2026. Numbers refreshed Oct 12, 2026.