Tulane vs Memphis Prediction: Will Memphis Cover -6.5?
Early projections. These may be updated on Wednesday.
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Tulane -4.16 for Memphis at Tulane, 10.7 points off the market’s Memphis -6.5, and gives Tulane a 60% win probability.
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What this tells us
My model has Tulane winning outright, but the market has Memphis favored by 6.5. The market is more bullish on Memphis than my model is, which gives us a fundamental disagreement on who takes this game.
The model's side at the current line. It isn't a bet. I only bet a small share of the model's picks.
About this gap
Games with a gap over 10 points covered 53.0% of the time in the backtest (181 games).
| Model vs market | Cover % | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 0–3 pts | 51.4% | 883 |
| 3–6 pts | 53.9% | 616 |
| 6–10 pts | 54.6% | 401 |
| 10+ pts (this game) | 53.0% | 181 |
Backtest: every game, weeks 2+ of 2023–25.
Weather at kickoff
No significant weather expected.
How the number is built
The model rates every FBS team on efficiency, adjusted for opponent, and refits every week. It predicts a score, which becomes a spread and a total. Backdoor Cover Picks are the few games I bet.
My track record starts with the 2026 season. Picks are posted before kickoff and graded once the game finishes.
Common questions
Who does the model project to win Tulane vs Memphis?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Tulane to win, with a 60% win probability.
What is the model’s predicted spread for Memphis at Tulane?
The model projects Tulane -4.16 and the market has Memphis -6.5, a gap of 10.7 points.
What side does the model favor against the spread?
Tulane +6.5, at the current number. Backdoor Cover Picks may still pass on this game.
Recent meetings
How the model is doing. 174–154–1 against the spread (53.0%), 97–75 on totals (56.4%) and 247–82 straight up (75.1%) on every game this season.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Is Memphis at Tulane one of my picks? Subscribers see whether I’m betting it, and if so the side, the line and a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.