Kansas Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Kansas to finish 5-7 in 2026, with 4.8 expected wins. Down 0.2 wins from the preseason projection. Kansas makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Kansas a 0% chance to win the Big 12 outright. The model has picked 3 of 6 Kansas games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Kansas earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Kansas. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Fri Sep 4
vs Long Island UniversityWon51-6 - Week 2Fri Sep 11
vs MissouriLost21-38 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
Lost17-24 - Week 5Sat Oct 3Won55-0
- Week 6Sat Oct 10
at UtahLost24-41 - Week 7Sat Oct 17
at Kansas StateLost24-35 - Week 8Sat Oct 24
vs BaylorWon25-24 - Week 9Sat Oct 31
at TCU39% chance Kansas wins - Week 10Sat Nov 7
vs UCF37% chance Kansas wins - Week 11Sat Nov 1454% chance Kansas wins
- Week 12Sat Nov 21
vs BYU26% chance Kansas wins - Week 13Sat Nov 2824% chance Kansas wins
How many games Kansas wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 5-7 (35% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 5.0 in the preseason to 4.8 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.