Ole Miss vs Missouri Prediction: Will Ole Miss Cover -6?
Early projections. These may be updated on Wednesday.
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Missouri -0.60 for Missouri at Ole Miss, 6.6 points off the market’s Ole Miss -6, and gives Missouri a 52% win probability.
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What this tells us
My model has Missouri winning outright, but the market has Ole Miss favored. The disagreement is a full 7 points, with the market much more bullish on Ole Miss than my model is.
The model's side at the current line. It isn't a bet. I only bet a small share of the model's picks.
About this gap
Games with a 6 to 10 point gap covered 54.6% of the time in the backtest (401 games).
| Model vs market | Cover % | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 0–3 pts | 51.4% | 883 |
| 3–6 pts | 53.9% | 616 |
| 6–10 pts (this game) | 54.6% | 401 |
| 10+ pts | 53.0% | 181 |
Backtest: every game, weeks 2+ of 2023–25.
Weather at kickoff
No significant weather expected.
How the number is built
The model rates every FBS team on efficiency, adjusted for opponent, and refits every week. It predicts a score, which becomes a spread and a total. Backdoor Cover Picks are the few games I bet.
My track record starts with the 2026 season. Picks are posted before kickoff and graded once the game finishes.
Common questions
Who does the model project to win Ole Miss vs Missouri?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Missouri to win, with a 52% win probability.
What is the model’s predicted spread for Missouri at Ole Miss?
The model projects Missouri -0.60 and the market has Ole Miss -6, a gap of 6.6 points.
What side does the model favor against the spread?
Missouri +6, at the current number. Backdoor Cover Picks may still pass on this game.
How the model is doing. 174–154–1 against the spread (53.0%), 97–75 on totals (56.4%) and 247–82 straight up (75.1%) on every game this season.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Is Missouri at Ole Miss one of my picks? Subscribers see whether I’m betting it, and if so the side, the line and a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.