Tulane Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Tulane to finish 5-7 in 2026, with 5.4 expected wins. Down 1.7 wins from the preseason projection. Tulane makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Tulane a <1% chance to win the American Athletic outright. The model has picked 6 of 7 Tulane games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Tulane earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Tulane. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
at DukeLost3-17 - Week 2Sat Sep 12Won28-24
- Week 3Sat Sep 19
at Kansas StateLost20-31 - Week 4Sat Sep 26Won24-21
- Week 6Sat Oct 10
at ArmyLost17-20 - Week 7Fri Oct 16
vs MemphisWon31-17 - Week 8Sat Oct 24
vs UTSALost19-42 - Week 9Fri Oct 30
at Charlotte78% chance Tulane wins - Week 10Sat Nov 7
vs Tulsa43% chance Tulane wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
at Rice55% chance Tulane wins - Week 12Sat Nov 21
vs North Texas32% chance Tulane wins - Week 13Fri Nov 2729% chance Tulane wins
How many games Tulane wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 5-7 (35% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 7.1 in the preseason to 5.4 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.