Ole Miss vs Auburn Prediction: Will Ole Miss Cover -11.5?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Ole Miss -11.0 for Auburn at Ole Miss, 0.5 points off the market’s Ole Miss -11.5, and gives Ole Miss a 76% win probability.
What this tells us
My model is less bullish on Ole Miss than the market is. It still has them winning outright with a 76% win probability, but it sees a smaller margin than the 11.5-point spread, so the two split on the number.
The matchup
Offense
Defense
About this gap
Games with a gap under 3 points covered 51.4% of the time in the backtest (883 games).
this game
Dashed line: 50%. Solid line: 52.4%, break-even at -110. Backtest: every game, weeks 2+ of 2023–25. Games per row: 883, 616, 401, 181.
Line movement
Weather at kickoff
No significant weather expected.
Recent meetings Auburn leads 6–2 in the last 8 meetings
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Common questions
Who does the model project to win Ole Miss vs Auburn?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Ole Miss to win, with a 76% win probability.
What is the model’s predicted spread for Auburn at Ole Miss?
The model projects Ole Miss -11.0 and the market has Ole Miss -11.5, a gap of 0.5 points.
What side does the model favor against the spread?
Auburn +11.5, at the current number. Backdoor Cover Picks may still pass on this game.
How the number is built
The model rates every FBS team on efficiency, adjusted for opponent, and refits every week. It predicts a score, which becomes a spread and a total. Backdoor Cover Picks are the few games I bet.
My track record starts with the 2026 season. Picks are posted before kickoff and graded once the game finishes.
How the model is doing. 237–206–7 against the spread (53.5%), 158–135 on totals (53.9%) and 321–129 straight up (71.3%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Is Auburn at Ole Miss one of my picks? Subscribers see whether I’m betting it, and if so the side, the line and a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.
