USC vs Ohio State Prediction: Will Ohio State Cover -6.5?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Ohio State -14.1 for Ohio State at USC, 7.6 points off the market’s Ohio State -6.5, and gives Ohio State a 81% win probability.
What this tells us
My model is more bullish on Ohio State than the market is. I have them winning by 14 points with an 81% win probability, while the market has them favored by just 6.5. Both sides agree Ohio State wins, but I'm significantly more confident than the spread reflects.
The matchup
Offense
Defense
About this gap
Games with a 6 to 10 point gap covered 54.6% of the time in the backtest (401 games).
this game
Dashed line: 50%. Solid line: 52.4%, break-even at -110. Backtest: every game, weeks 2+ of 2023–25. Games per row: 883, 616, 401, 181.
Line movement
Weather at kickoff
No significant weather expected.
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Common questions
Who does the model project to win USC vs Ohio State?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Ohio State to win, with a 81% win probability.
What is the model’s predicted spread for Ohio State at USC?
The model projects Ohio State -14.1 and the market has Ohio State -6.5, a gap of 7.6 points.
What side does the model favor against the spread?
Ohio State -6.5, at the current number. Backdoor Cover Picks may still pass on this game.
How the number is built
The model rates every FBS team on efficiency, adjusted for opponent, and refits every week. It predicts a score, which becomes a spread and a total. Backdoor Cover Picks are the few games I bet.
My track record starts with the 2026 season. Picks are posted before kickoff and graded once the game finishes.
How the model is doing. 236–205–7 against the spread (53.5%), 158–133 on totals (54.3%) and 320–128 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Is Ohio State at USC one of my picks? Subscribers see whether I’m betting it, and if so the side, the line and a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.
Other Week 9 breakdowns
All Week 9 games
Season predictions: Ohio State and USC.
Published Oct 28, 2026. Numbers refreshed Oct 29, 2026.