USC Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects USC to finish 8-4 in 2026, with 7.8 expected wins. Up 0.5 wins from the preseason projection. USC makes the 12-team Playoff in 14% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives USC a <1% chance to win the Big Ten outright. The model has picked 6 of 8 USC games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
USC earns a first-round bye in 1% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for USC. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Won39-0
- Week 1Fri Sep 4
vs Fresno StateWon39-0 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
vs LouisianaWon49-30 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
at RutgersWon42-35 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
vs OregonLost27-41 - Week 5Sat Oct 3
vs WashingtonWon25-21 - Week 6Sat Oct 10
at Penn StateWon31-23 - Week 8Sat Oct 24
at WisconsinLost7-24 - Week 9Sat Oct 31
vs Ohio State19% chance USC wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
at Indiana24% chance USC wins - Week 12Sat Nov 21
vs Maryland85% chance USC wins - Week 13Sat Nov 28
at UCLA50% chance USC wins
How many games USC wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 8-4 (43% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 7.3 in the preseason to 7.8 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.