Predictions / Week 9, 2026 / Notre Dame at Navy

Navy vs Notre Dame Prediction: Will Notre Dame Cover -30.5?

Backdoor Cover’s model projects Notre Dame -26.8 for Notre Dame at Navy, 3.7 points off the market’s Notre Dame -30.5, and gives Notre Dame a 95% win probability.

Notre Dame

95% to win

Navy

5% to win

My spread

Notre Dame -26.8

Market spread

Notre Dame -30.5

Points apart

3.7

Model pick

Navy +30.5

My total

54.0

Market total

55.5

Points apart

1.5

Total lean

Under 55.5

Sat, Oct 31 12:00 PM Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA ABC The model pick isn’t a bet. I only bet a small share of them.

What this tells us

My model is less bullish on Notre Dame than the market is. It still has them winning outright with high confidence, just not by as much as the spread says, so the two split on the number.

The matchup

Notre Dame

6–1

SP+ #3. ATS 4–3

Chance to win

95% to 5%

Notre Dame leads 8⁠–⁠1 in the last 9 meetings

Navy

2–5 (1–4 American Athletic)

SP+ #80. ATS 2–5

Offense

EPA per play

#41

Success rate

#27

#105

Big plays

#88

Points per scoring chance

#57

#13

Run game

#12

Pass game

#66

Defense

#16

EPA allowed

#113

#22

Success rate allowed

#65

#49

Big plays allowed

#128

#53

Points per chance allowed

#107

Run defense

#58

#62

Pass defense

#128

About this gap

Games with a 3 to 6 point gap covered 53.9% of the time in the backtest (616 games).

Gap

50%52.4%

Covered

0–3 pts

51.4%

3–6 pts
this game

53.9%

6–10 pts

54.6%

10+ pts

53.0%

Dashed line: 50%. Solid line: 52.4%, break-even at -110. Backtest: every game, weeks 2+ of 2023–25. Games per row: 883, 616, 401, 181.

Line movement

Market now

Notre Dame -30.5

My number

Notre Dame -26.8

Weather at kickoff

51°F temperature

11 mph wind, gusts 20

0% chance of precipitation

No significant weather expected.

Recent meetings Notre Dame leads 8⁠–⁠1 in the last 9 meetings

2025 Notre Dame 49, Navy 10 Notre Dame won

2024 Navy 14, Notre Dame 51 Notre Dame won

2023 Notre Dame 42, Navy 3 Notre Dame won

2022 Navy 32, Notre Dame 35 Notre Dame won

2021 Notre Dame 34, Navy 6 Notre Dame won

2019 Notre Dame 52, Navy 20 Notre Dame won

2018 Navy 22, Notre Dame 44 Notre Dame won

2017 Notre Dame 24, Navy 17 Notre Dame won

2016 Navy 28, Notre Dame 27 Navy won

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Common questions

Who does the model project to win Navy vs Notre Dame?

Backdoor Cover’s model projects Notre Dame to win, with a 95% win probability.

What is the model’s predicted spread for Notre Dame at Navy?

The model projects Notre Dame -26.8 and the market has Notre Dame -30.5, a gap of 3.7 points.

What side does the model favor against the spread?

Navy +30.5, at the current number. Backdoor Cover Picks may still pass on this game.

How the number is built

The model rates every FBS team on efficiency, adjusted for opponent, and refits every week. It predicts a score, which becomes a spread and a total. Backdoor Cover Picks are the few games I bet.

My track record starts with the 2026 season. Picks are posted before kickoff and graded once the game finishes.

How the model is doing. 238–208–7 against the spread (53.4%), 159–137 on totals (53.7%) and 323–130 straight up (71.3%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.

Track Record All Week 9 games

Backdoor Cover Picks

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My track record is on the Track Record page.

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Other Week 9 breakdowns

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Season predictions: Notre Dame and Navy.

Published Oct 28, 2026. Numbers refreshed Oct 31, 2026.