Texas State Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Texas State to finish 6-5 in 2026, with 6.5 expected wins. Texas State makes the 12-team Playoff in <1% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Texas State a 15% chance to win the Pac-12 outright. The model has picked 5 of 6 Texas State games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Texas State earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Texas State. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
at TexasLost7-59 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
vs UTSALost26-31 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
vs North TexasWon49-35 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
vs Incarnate WordWon63-10 - Week 5Sat Oct 3Lost29-31
- Week 7Thu Oct 15Won66-27
- Week 8Sat Oct 24
vs Utah StateWon20-17 - Week 9Sat Oct 31
at Boise State36% chance Texas State wins - Week 10Sat Nov 7
at Oregon State41% chance Texas State wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
vs Fresno State82% chance Texas State wins - Week 12Sat Nov 2187% chance Texas State wins
How many games Texas State wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 6-5 (40% of simulations). Regular season, 11 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 6.6 in the preseason to 6.5 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.