Texas State Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Texas State to finish 5-6 in 2026, with 4.8 expected wins. That’s down 1.8 wins from our preseason number.
Our statistical model projects Texas State to finish 5-6 in 2026, with 4.8 expected wins. The model gives Texas State a 0% chance to win the Pac-12 outright.
Model called 1 of 1 of Texas State’s games right so far this season.
Game-by-game
Played games show the result and whether the model called it (✓/✗). Upcoming games show win probability.
| Week | Opponent | Result / win prob |
|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ Texas | Lost 7–59 ✓ |
| Wk 2 | vs UTSA | 12% |
| Wk 3 | vs North Texas | 75% |
| Wk 4 | vs Incarnate Word | 93% |
| Wk 5 | @ San Diego State | 1% |
| Wk 7 | vs Colorado State | 71% |
| Wk 8 | vs Utah State | 62% |
| Wk 9 | @ Boise State | 9% |
| Wk 10 | @ Oregon State | 26% |
| Wk 11 | vs Fresno State | 74% |
| Wk 12 | vs Washington State | 54% |
Win-total distribution
What subscribers get
Everything above is the free model. Texas State has a 2% shot at the Pac-12 title game in the model. Subscribers get the full picture — and the picks we actually bet.
New members’ first week is 99¢ — and the first losing week’s on us. 2026 picks verified on Juice Reel.
Projections are model output for informational and entertainment purposes only. Not betting advice. You must be 21 or older, or the legal age where you are. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
© 2026 Backdoor Cover LLC