Kansas vs Arizona State Prediction: Will Arizona State Cover -5.5?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Kansas -1.82 for Arizona State at Kansas, 7.3 points off the market’s Arizona State -5.5, and gives Kansas a 56% win probability.
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What this tells us
My model has Kansas winning outright, while the market favors Arizona State. The market is more bullish on Arizona State than my model is, projecting a much wider margin of victory than my system does. That is the sharpest kind of disagreement my system flags — the two reads don't just differ on the margin, they differ on who wins.
The model's side at the current line. It isn't a bet. I only bet a small share of the model's picks.
Weather at kickoff
No significant weather expected.
How the number is built
The model rates every FBS team on efficiency, adjusted for opponent, and refits every week. It predicts a score, which becomes a spread and a total. Backdoor Cover Picks are the few games I bet.
My track record starts with the 2026 season. Picks are posted before kickoff and graded once the game finishes.
Common questions
Who does the model project to win Kansas vs Arizona State?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Kansas to win, with a 56% win probability.
What is the model’s predicted spread for Arizona State at Kansas?
The model projects Kansas -1.82 and the market has Arizona State -5.5, a gap of 7.3 points.
What side does the model favor against the spread?
Kansas +5.5, at the current number. Backdoor Cover Picks may still pass on this game.
How the model is doing. 113–101–1 against the spread (52.8%), 35–23 on totals (60.3%) and 166–49 straight up (77.2%) on every game this season.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Is Arizona State at Kansas one of my picks? Subscribers see whether I’m betting it, and if so the side, the line and a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.
Season predictions: Arizona State and Kansas.
Published Sep 15, 2026. Numbers refreshed Sep 16, 2026.