South Carolina vs Mississippi State Prediction: Will South Carolina Cover -4?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects South Carolina -11.70 for Mississippi State at South Carolina, 7.7 points off the market’s South Carolina -4, and gives South Carolina a 88% win probability.
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What this tells us
My model is more bullish on South Carolina than the market. It projects South Carolina to win by a substantially larger margin and assigns a much higher win probability than the market's line reflects. This divergence represents a meaningful disagreement between two independent reads of the game.
The model's side at the current line. It isn't a bet. I only bet a small share of the model's picks.
Weather at kickoff
Precipitation is in the forecast.
How the number is built
The model rates every FBS team on efficiency, adjusted for opponent, and refits every week. It predicts a score, which becomes a spread and a total. Backdoor Cover Picks are the few games I bet.
My track record starts with the 2026 season. Picks are posted before kickoff and graded once the game finishes.
Common questions
Who does the model project to win South Carolina vs Mississippi State?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects South Carolina to win, with a 88% win probability.
What is the model’s predicted spread for Mississippi State at South Carolina?
The model projects South Carolina -11.70 and the market has South Carolina -4, a gap of 7.7 points.
What side does the model favor against the spread?
South Carolina -4, at the current number. Backdoor Cover Picks may still pass on this game.
How the model is doing. 113–101–1 against the spread (52.8%), 35–23 on totals (60.3%) and 166–49 straight up (77.2%) on every game this season.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Is Mississippi State at South Carolina one of my picks? Subscribers see whether I’m betting it, and if so the side, the line and a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.
Season predictions: Mississippi State and South Carolina.
Published Sep 15, 2026. Numbers refreshed Sep 16, 2026.