Arizona vs Cincinnati Prediction: Will Arizona Cover -7?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Arizona -1.57 for Cincinnati at Arizona, 5.4 points off the market’s Arizona -7, and gives Arizona a 54% win probability.
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What this tells us
My model is less bullish on Arizona than the market is. I've got them winning by 2 points, but the market has them favored by 7, so there's a real gap between what I see and what the market is pricing in.
The model's side at the current line. It isn't a bet. I only bet a small share of the model's picks.
About this gap
Games with a 3 to 6 point gap covered 53.9% of the time in the backtest (616 games).
| Model vs market | Cover % | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 0–3 pts | 51.4% | 883 |
| 3–6 pts (this game) | 53.9% | 616 |
| 6–10 pts | 54.6% | 401 |
| 10+ pts | 53.0% | 181 |
Backtest: every game, weeks 2+ of 2023–25.
Weather at kickoff
No significant weather expected.
How the number is built
The model rates every FBS team on efficiency, adjusted for opponent, and refits every week. It predicts a score, which becomes a spread and a total. Backdoor Cover Picks are the few games I bet.
My track record starts with the 2026 season. Picks are posted before kickoff and graded once the game finishes.
Common questions
Who does the model project to win Arizona vs Cincinnati?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Arizona to win, with a 54% win probability.
What is the model’s predicted spread for Cincinnati at Arizona?
The model projects Arizona -1.57 and the market has Arizona -7, a gap of 5.4 points.
What side does the model favor against the spread?
Cincinnati +7, at the current number. Backdoor Cover Picks may still pass on this game.
How the model is doing. 113–101–1 against the spread (52.8%), 35–23 on totals (60.3%) and 166–49 straight up (77.2%) on every game this season.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Is Cincinnati at Arizona one of my picks? Subscribers see whether I’m betting it, and if so the side, the line and a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.
Season predictions: Cincinnati and Arizona.
Published Sep 30, 2026. Numbers refreshed Sep 30, 2026.