Cincinnati Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Cincinnati to finish 7-5 in 2026, with 7.2 expected wins. Up 2.1 wins from the preseason projection. Cincinnati makes the 12-team Playoff in <1% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Cincinnati a <1% chance to win the Big 12 outright. The model has picked 4 of 6 Cincinnati games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Cincinnati earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Cincinnati. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5Won34-15
- Week 2Sat Sep 12
vs Western CarolinaWon62-10 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
vs Miami (OH)Won35-31 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
vs Kansas StateWon31-26 - Week 5Sat Oct 3
at ArizonaLost7-34 - Week 7Sat Oct 17Lost42-45
- Week 8Sat Oct 24
vs Texas TechWon37-24 - Week 9Sat Oct 31
vs Utah21% chance Cincinnati wins - Week 10Sat Nov 7
at Houston26% chance Cincinnati wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
at Iowa State69% chance Cincinnati wins - Week 12Sat Nov 21
vs Colorado76% chance Cincinnati wins - Week 13Sat Nov 28
at BYU23% chance Cincinnati wins
How many games Cincinnati wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 7-5 (41% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 5.1 in the preseason to 7.2 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.