How many games will Cincinnati win in 2026?

The model's expected win total for Cincinnati is 5.8 wins.

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Big 12 · 2026 outlook · updated Sep 8, 2026

Cincinnati Football 2026 Season Prediction

Q: What is Cincinnati's projected record for 2026?

Backdoor Cover's statistical model projects Cincinnati to finish 6-6 in 2026, about 5.8 expected wins.

Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Cincinnati to finish 6-6 in 2026, with 5.8 expected wins. That’s up 0.7 wins from our preseason number.

1-0

record so far

6-6

projected record

5.8 ▲0.7 vs preseason

win total (expected wins)

Our statistical model projects Cincinnati to finish 6-6 in 2026, with 5.8 expected wins. The model gives Cincinnati a 0% chance to win the Big 12 outright.

Model called 1 of 1 of Cincinnati’s games right so far this season.

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Game-by-game

Played games show the result and whether the model called it (✓/✗). Upcoming games show win probability.

Week	Opponent	Result / win prob
Wk 1	vs Boston College	Won 34–15 ✓
Wk 2	vs Western Carolina	93%
Wk 3	vs Miami (OH)	94%
Wk 4	vs Kansas State	16%
Wk 5	@ Arizona	14%
Wk 7	@ West Virginia	74%
Wk 8	vs Texas Tech	12%
Wk 9	vs Utah	45%
Wk 10	@ Houston	18%
Wk 11	@ Iowa State	28%
Wk 12	vs Colorado	88%
Wk 13	@ BYU	6%

Win-total distribution

3 wins

4 wins

11%

5 wins

27%

6 wins

32%

7 wins

20%

8 wins

9 wins

What subscribers get

Everything above is the free model. Cincinnati has a 0% shot at the Big 12 title game in the model. Subscribers get the full picture — and the picks we actually bet.

This week’s picks

Our actual bet card — every spread and underdog, with the unit size we’re using.

The full interactive projections

Cincinnati’s conference title odds, the projected 12-team playoff bracket, and week-by-week movement.

Full prediction exports

Every game’s projected spread and win probability, downloadable as a CSV.

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The record you’re buying into

53–21

ATS since Week 8, 2025

71.6% on the filtered picks

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More: Big 12 projections · all 2026 team predictions · this week’s games · track record

Projections are model output for informational and entertainment purposes only. Not betting advice. You must be 21 or older, or the legal age where you are. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.