Arizona Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Arizona to finish 9-3 in 2026, with 8.8 expected wins. Up 1.0 wins from the preseason projection. Arizona makes the 12-team Playoff in 8% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Arizona a 2% chance to win the Big 12 outright. The model has picked 6 of 6 Arizona games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Arizona earns a first-round bye in 1% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Arizona. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
vs Northern ArizonaWon35-7 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
at BYULost17-28 - Week 3Sat Sep 19Won42-17
- Week 4Sat Sep 26Won34-24
- Week 5Sat Oct 3
vs CincinnatiWon34-7 - Week 6Sat Oct 10Won52-31
- Week 8Sat Oct 24
vs Iowa StateWon39-3 - Week 9Sat Oct 31
at Texas Tech32% chance Arizona wins - Week 10Fri Nov 6
vs TCU67% chance Arizona wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
vs Utah32% chance Arizona wins - Week 12Sat Nov 21
at Kansas State69% chance Arizona wins - Week 13Sat Nov 2882% chance Arizona wins
How many games Arizona wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 9-3 (38% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 7.8 in the preseason to 8.8 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.