Colorado vs Texas Tech Prediction: Will Texas Tech Cover -11.5?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Texas Tech -17.26 for Texas Tech at Colorado, 5.8 points off the market’s Texas Tech -11.5, and gives Texas Tech a 86% win probability.
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What this tells us
My model is more bullish on Texas Tech than the market is. I have them winning by 17 points with an 86% win probability, while the market has them favored by just 11.5. Both sides agree Texas Tech wins, but I'm significantly higher on how much they win by.
The model's side at the current line. It isn't a bet. I only bet a small share of the model's picks.
About this gap
Games with a 3 to 6 point gap covered 53.9% of the time in the backtest (616 games).
| Model vs market | Cover % | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 0–3 pts | 51.4% | 883 |
| 3–6 pts (this game) | 53.9% | 616 |
| 6–10 pts | 54.6% | 401 |
| 10+ pts | 53.0% | 181 |
Backtest: every game, weeks 2+ of 2023–25.
Weather at kickoff
Wind could affect the passing and kicking game.
How the number is built
The model rates every FBS team on efficiency, adjusted for opponent, and refits every week. It predicts a score, which becomes a spread and a total. Backdoor Cover Picks are the few games I bet.
My track record starts with the 2026 season. Picks are posted before kickoff and graded once the game finishes.
Common questions
Who does the model project to win Colorado vs Texas Tech?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Texas Tech to win, with a 86% win probability.
What is the model’s predicted spread for Texas Tech at Colorado?
The model projects Texas Tech -17.26 and the market has Texas Tech -11.5, a gap of 5.8 points.
What side does the model favor against the spread?
Texas Tech -11.5, at the current number. Backdoor Cover Picks may still pass on this game.
How the model is doing. 113–101–1 against the spread (52.8%), 35–23 on totals (60.3%) and 166–49 straight up (77.2%) on every game this season.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Is Texas Tech at Colorado one of my picks? Subscribers see whether I’m betting it, and if so the side, the line and a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.
Season predictions: Texas Tech and Colorado.
Published Sep 30, 2026. Numbers refreshed Sep 30, 2026.