Texas Tech Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Texas Tech to finish 9-3 in 2026, with 9.2 expected wins. Down 2.4 wins from the preseason projection. Texas Tech makes the 12-team Playoff in 13% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Texas Tech a 6% chance to win the Big 12 outright. The model has picked 5 of 6 Texas Tech games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Texas Tech earns a first-round bye in 2% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Texas Tech. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
vs Abilene ChristianWon33-10 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
at Oregon StateWon35-24 - Week 3Fri Sep 18
vs HoustonWon28-26 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
vs Sam HoustonWon49-14 - Week 5Sat Oct 3
at ColoradoWon29-7 - Week 7Sat Oct 17Won53-25
- Week 8Sat Oct 24
at CincinnatiLost24-37 - Week 9Sat Oct 31
vs Arizona68% chance Texas Tech wins - Week 10Sat Nov 776% chance Texas Tech wins
- Week 11Sat Nov 1444% chance Texas Tech wins
- Week 12Sat Nov 21
at Baylor57% chance Texas Tech wins - Week 13Thu Nov 26
vs TCU73% chance Texas Tech wins
How many games Texas Tech wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 9-3 (35% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 11.6 in the preseason to 9.2 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.