Mississippi State vs Alabama Prediction: Will Alabama Cover -5.5?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Alabama -10.57 for Alabama at Mississippi State, 5.1 points off the market’s Alabama -5.5, and gives Alabama a 75% win probability.
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What this tells us
My model is more bullish on Alabama than the market is. I have them winning by 11 points with a 75% win probability, while the market only has them favored by 5.5. Both sides agree Alabama wins, but I'm significantly higher on them than the line is.
The model's side at the current line. It isn't a bet. I only bet a small share of the model's picks.
About this gap
Games with a 3 to 6 point gap covered 53.9% of the time in the backtest (616 games).
| Model vs market | Cover % | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 0–3 pts | 51.4% | 883 |
| 3–6 pts (this game) | 53.9% | 616 |
| 6–10 pts | 54.6% | 401 |
| 10+ pts | 53.0% | 181 |
Backtest: every game, weeks 2+ of 2023–25.
Weather at kickoff
No significant weather expected.
How the number is built
The model rates every FBS team on efficiency, adjusted for opponent, and refits every week. It predicts a score, which becomes a spread and a total. Backdoor Cover Picks are the few games I bet.
My track record starts with the 2026 season. Picks are posted before kickoff and graded once the game finishes.
Common questions
Who does the model project to win Mississippi State vs Alabama?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Alabama to win, with a 75% win probability.
What is the model’s predicted spread for Alabama at Mississippi State?
The model projects Alabama -10.57 and the market has Alabama -5.5, a gap of 5.1 points.
What side does the model favor against the spread?
Alabama -5.5, at the current number. Backdoor Cover Picks may still pass on this game.
Recent meetings
How the model is doing. 114–102–1 against the spread (52.8%), 35–25 on totals (58.3%) and 168–49 straight up (77.4%) on every game this season.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Is Alabama at Mississippi State one of my picks? Subscribers see whether I’m betting it, and if so the side, the line and a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.
Season predictions: Alabama and Mississippi State.
Published Sep 30, 2026. Numbers refreshed Oct 2, 2026.