How many games will Alabama win in 2026?

The model's expected win total for Alabama is 8.0 wins.

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SEC · 2026 outlook · updated Sep 8, 2026

Alabama Football 2026 Season Prediction

Q: What is Alabama's projected record for 2026?

Backdoor Cover's statistical model projects Alabama to finish 8-4 in 2026, about 8.0 expected wins.

Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Alabama to finish 8-4 in 2026, with 8.0 expected wins. That’s up 0.2 wins from our preseason number.

1-0

record so far

8-4

projected record

8.0 ▲0.2 vs preseason

win total (expected wins)

Our statistical model projects Alabama to finish 8-4 in 2026, with 8.0 expected wins. The model gives Alabama a 0% chance to win the SEC outright.

Model called 1 of 1 of Alabama’s games right so far this season.

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Game-by-game

Played games show the result and whether the model called it (✓/✗). Upcoming games show win probability.

Week	Opponent	Result / win prob
Wk 1	vs East Carolina	Won 48–10 ✓
Wk 2	@ Kentucky	81%
Wk 3	vs Florida State	92%
Wk 4	vs South Carolina	81%
Wk 5	@ Mississippi State	75%
Wk 6	vs Georgia	17%
Wk 7	@ Tennessee	28%
Wk 8	vs Texas A&M	40%
Wk 10	@ LSU	21%
Wk 11	@ Vanderbilt	79%
Wk 12	vs Chattanooga	93%
Wk 13	vs Auburn	91%

Win-total distribution

5 wins

6 wins

7 wins

23%

8 wins

31%

9 wins

23%

10 wins

11 wins

What subscribers get

Everything above is the free model. Alabama has a 1% shot at the SEC title game in the model. Subscribers get the full picture — and the picks we actually bet.

This week’s picks

Our actual bet card — every spread and underdog, with the unit size we’re using.

The full interactive projections

Alabama’s conference title odds, the projected 12-team playoff bracket, and week-by-week movement.

Full prediction exports

Every game’s projected spread and win probability, downloadable as a CSV.

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The record you’re buying into

53–21

ATS since Week 8, 2025

71.6% on the filtered picks

See every graded pick

More: SEC projections · all 2026 team predictions · this week’s games · track record

Projections are model output for informational and entertainment purposes only. Not betting advice. You must be 21 or older, or the legal age where you are. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.