Alabama Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Alabama to finish 9-3 in 2026, with 9.2 expected wins. Up 1.4 wins from the preseason projection. Alabama makes the 12-team Playoff in 44% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Alabama a 32% chance to win the SEC outright. The model has picked 6 of 8 Alabama games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
My model’s projected bracket has Alabama as the 11 seed, going out in the title game to 1-seed Ohio State (46% for Alabama in that game). Alabama earns a first-round bye in 11% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Alabama. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5Won48-10
- Week 2Sat Sep 12
at KentuckyWon45-17 - Week 3Sat Sep 19Won50-36
- Week 4Sat Sep 26Won49-18
- Week 5Sat Oct 3Won56-23
- Week 6Sat Oct 10
vs GeorgiaLost17-20 - Week 7Sat Oct 17
at TennesseeLost10-26 - Week 8Sat Oct 24
vs Texas A&MWon31-20 - Week 10Sat Nov 7
at LSU42% chance Alabama wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
at Vanderbilt92% chance Alabama wins - Week 12Sat Nov 21
vs Chattanooga93% chance Alabama wins - Week 13Sat Nov 28
vs Auburn93% chance Alabama wins
How many games Alabama wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 9-3 (54% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 7.8 in the preseason to 9.2 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.