Arkansas State vs South Alabama Prediction: Will Arkansas State Cover -1.5?
Early projections. Games after Tuesday night may be updated on Wednesday.
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Arkansas State -8.13 for South Alabama at Arkansas State, 6.6 points off the market’s Arkansas State -1.5, and gives Arkansas State a 70% win probability.
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What this tells us
My model is more bullish on Arkansas State than the market is. I have them winning by 8 points with a 70% win probability, while the market only has them favored by 1.5. We agree Arkansas State wins, but I think they win by a bigger margin than the line suggests.
The model's side at the current line. It isn't a bet. I only bet a small share of the model's picks.
About this gap
Games with a 6 to 10 point gap covered 54.6% of the time in the backtest (401 games).
| Model vs market | Cover % | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 0–3 pts | 51.4% | 883 |
| 3–6 pts | 53.9% | 616 |
| 6–10 pts (this game) | 54.6% | 401 |
| 10+ pts | 53.0% | 181 |
Backtest: every game, weeks 2+ of 2023–25.
Weather at kickoff
No significant weather expected.
How the number is built
The model rates every FBS team on efficiency, adjusted for opponent, and refits every week. It predicts a score, which becomes a spread and a total. Backdoor Cover Picks are the few games I bet.
My track record starts with the 2026 season. Picks are posted before kickoff and graded once the game finishes.
Common questions
Who does the model project to win Arkansas State vs South Alabama?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Arkansas State to win, with a 70% win probability.
What is the model’s predicted spread for South Alabama at Arkansas State?
The model projects Arkansas State -8.13 and the market has Arkansas State -1.5, a gap of 6.6 points.
What side does the model favor against the spread?
Arkansas State -1.5, at the current number. Backdoor Cover Picks may still pass on this game.
Recent meetings
How the model is doing. 142–128–1 against the spread (52.6%), 69–45 on totals (60.5%) and 208–63 straight up (76.8%) on every game this season.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Is South Alabama at Arkansas State one of my picks? Subscribers see whether I’m betting it, and if so the side, the line and a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.
Season predictions: South Alabama and Arkansas State.
Published Oct 6, 2026. Numbers refreshed Oct 6, 2026.