UTSA vs South Florida Prediction: Will UTSA Cover -7?
Early projections. Games after Tuesday night may be updated on Wednesday.
Backdoor Cover’s model projects South Florida -5.18 for South Florida at UTSA, 12.2 points off the market’s UTSA -7, and gives South Florida a 63% win probability.
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What this tells us
My model has South Florida winning outright, but the market has the other side favored. The market is more bullish on UTSA than I am, disagreeing on both the winner and the margin.
The model's side at the current line. It isn't a bet. I only bet a small share of the model's picks.
About this gap
Games with a gap over 10 points covered 53.0% of the time in the backtest (181 games).
| Model vs market | Cover % | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 0–3 pts | 51.4% | 883 |
| 3–6 pts | 53.9% | 616 |
| 6–10 pts | 54.6% | 401 |
| 10+ pts (this game) | 53.0% | 181 |
Backtest: every game, weeks 2+ of 2023–25.
Weather at kickoff
It’s an indoor game, so the weather doesn’t matter.
How the number is built
The model rates every FBS team on efficiency, adjusted for opponent, and refits every week. It predicts a score, which becomes a spread and a total. Backdoor Cover Picks are the few games I bet.
My track record starts with the 2026 season. Picks are posted before kickoff and graded once the game finishes.
Common questions
Who does the model project to win UTSA vs South Florida?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects South Florida to win, with a 63% win probability.
What is the model’s predicted spread for South Florida at UTSA?
The model projects South Florida -5.18 and the market has UTSA -7, a gap of 12.2 points.
What side does the model favor against the spread?
South Florida +7, at the current number. Backdoor Cover Picks may still pass on this game.
How the model is doing. 142–128–1 against the spread (52.6%), 69–45 on totals (60.5%) and 208–63 straight up (76.8%) on every game this season.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Is South Florida at UTSA one of my picks? Subscribers see whether I’m betting it, and if so the side, the line and a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.
Season predictions: South Florida and UTSA.
Published Oct 6, 2026. Numbers refreshed Oct 6, 2026.