South Alabama Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects South Alabama to finish 6-6 in 2026, with 5.8 expected wins. Up 0.6 wins from the preseason projection. South Alabama makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives South Alabama a <1% chance to win the Sun Belt outright. The model has picked 4 of 6 South Alabama games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
South Alabama earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for South Alabama. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
vs SE LouisianaWon39-14 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
at TulaneLost24-28 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
vs OhioWon41-36 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
at KentuckyLost21-45 - Week 5Sat Oct 3
vs UL MonroeWon52-35 - Week 6Thu Oct 8Won56-49
- Week 8Tue Oct 20
at MarshallLost13-20 - Week 9Sat Oct 3125% chance South Alabama wins
- Week 10Sat Nov 7
at Louisiana24% chance South Alabama wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
vs Troy50% chance South Alabama wins - Week 12Sat Nov 2147% chance South Alabama wins
- Week 13Fri Nov 27
vs App State32% chance South Alabama wins
How many games South Alabama wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 6-6 (35% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 5.2 in the preseason to 5.8 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.