Arkansas State Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Arkansas State to finish 6-6 in 2026, with 6.5 expected wins. Up 0.3 wins from the preseason projection. Arkansas State makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Arkansas State a 2% chance to win the Sun Belt outright. The model has picked 5 of 7 Arkansas State games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Arkansas State earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Arkansas State. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
at MemphisLost24-42 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
vs West GeorgiaWon52-7 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
at TCULost7-31 - Week 4Sat Sep 26Won17-14
- Week 5Sat Oct 3
at LouisianaLost20-23 - Week 6Thu Oct 8Lost49-56
- Week 7Sat Oct 17Won23-13
- Week 8Sat Oct 24Won38-32
- Week 10Sat Nov 7
vs UL Monroe95% chance Arkansas State wins - Week 11Sat Nov 1453% chance Arkansas State wins
- Week 12Sat Nov 2129% chance Arkansas State wins
- Week 13Sat Nov 28
vs Troy72% chance Arkansas State wins
How many games Arkansas State wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 7-5 (40% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 6.2 in the preseason to 6.5 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.