BYU vs Iowa State Prediction: Will BYU Cover -10.5?
Early projections. Games after Tuesday night may be updated on Wednesday.
Backdoor Cover’s model projects BYU -15.86 for Iowa State at BYU, 5.4 points off the market’s BYU -10.5, and gives BYU a 84% win probability.
Get Backdoor Cover Projections every Wednesday
It’s one email every Wednesday, after the model runs. You can unsubscribe any time.
What this tells us
My model is more bullish on BYU than the market is. I have them winning by 16 points with an 84% win probability, while the market has them favored by only 10.5. Both sides agree BYU wins, but I'm projecting a more comfortable margin than the spread reflects.
The model's side at the current line. It isn't a bet. I only bet a small share of the model's picks.
About this gap
Games with a 3 to 6 point gap covered 53.9% of the time in the backtest (616 games).
| Model vs market | Cover % | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 0–3 pts | 51.4% | 883 |
| 3–6 pts (this game) | 53.9% | 616 |
| 6–10 pts | 54.6% | 401 |
| 10+ pts | 53.0% | 181 |
Backtest: every game, weeks 2+ of 2023–25.
Weather at kickoff
No significant weather expected.
How the number is built
The model rates every FBS team on efficiency, adjusted for opponent, and refits every week. It predicts a score, which becomes a spread and a total. Backdoor Cover Picks are the few games I bet.
My track record starts with the 2026 season. Picks are posted before kickoff and graded once the game finishes.
Common questions
Who does the model project to win BYU vs Iowa State?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects BYU to win, with a 84% win probability.
What is the model’s predicted spread for Iowa State at BYU?
The model projects BYU -15.86 and the market has BYU -10.5, a gap of 5.4 points.
What side does the model favor against the spread?
BYU -10.5, at the current number. Backdoor Cover Picks may still pass on this game.
How the model is doing. 142–128–1 against the spread (52.6%), 69–45 on totals (60.5%) and 208–63 straight up (76.8%) on every game this season.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Is Iowa State at BYU one of my picks? Subscribers see whether I’m betting it, and if so the side, the line and a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.
Season predictions: Iowa State and BYU.
Published Oct 6, 2026. Numbers refreshed Oct 6, 2026.