Iowa State Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Iowa State to finish 5-7 in 2026, with 4.6 expected wins. Down 0.2 wins from the preseason projection. Iowa State makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Iowa State a 0% chance to win the Big 12 outright. The model has picked 5 of 6 Iowa State games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Iowa State earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Iowa State. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
vs Southeast Missouri StateWon38-10 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
at IowaLost13-16 - Week 3Sat Sep 19Won55-7
- Week 4Sat Sep 26
vs UtahLost17-31 - Week 5Sat Oct 3Won45-42
- Week 6Fri Oct 9
at BYULost10-24 - Week 8Sat Oct 24
at ArizonaLost3-39 - Week 9Sat Oct 3129% chance Iowa State wins
- Week 10Sat Nov 7
at Baylor26% chance Iowa State wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
vs Cincinnati31% chance Iowa State wins - Week 12Fri Nov 20
at UCF22% chance Iowa State wins - Week 13Sat Nov 28
vs Kansas State48% chance Iowa State wins
How many games Iowa State wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 4-8 (36% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 4.8 in the preseason to 4.6 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.