Florida vs South Carolina Prediction: Will Florida Cover -13.5?
Early projections. Games after Tuesday night may be updated on Wednesday.
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Florida -11.94 for South Carolina at Florida, 1.6 points off the market’s Florida -13.5, and gives Florida a 78% win probability.
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What this tells us
My model is less bullish on Florida than the market is. It still has them winning outright with a 78% win probability, just not by as much as the spread says, so the two split on the number.
The model's side at the current line. It isn't a bet. I only bet a small share of the model's picks.
About this gap
Games with a gap under 3 points covered 51.4% of the time in the backtest (883 games).
| Model vs market | Cover % | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 0–3 pts (this game) | 51.4% | 883 |
| 3–6 pts | 53.9% | 616 |
| 6–10 pts | 54.6% | 401 |
| 10+ pts | 53.0% | 181 |
Backtest: every game, weeks 2+ of 2023–25.
Weather at kickoff
Precipitation is in the forecast.
How the number is built
The model rates every FBS team on efficiency, adjusted for opponent, and refits every week. It predicts a score, which becomes a spread and a total. Backdoor Cover Picks are the few games I bet.
My track record starts with the 2026 season. Picks are posted before kickoff and graded once the game finishes.
Common questions
Who does the model project to win Florida vs South Carolina?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Florida to win, with a 78% win probability.
What is the model’s predicted spread for South Carolina at Florida?
The model projects Florida -11.94 and the market has Florida -13.5, a gap of 1.6 points.
What side does the model favor against the spread?
South Carolina +13.5, at the current number. Backdoor Cover Picks may still pass on this game.
Recent meetings
How the model is doing. 142–128–1 against the spread (52.6%), 69–45 on totals (60.5%) and 208–63 straight up (76.8%) on every game this season.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Is South Carolina at Florida one of my picks? Subscribers see whether I’m betting it, and if so the side, the line and a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.
Season predictions: South Carolina and Florida.
Published Oct 6, 2026. Numbers refreshed Oct 6, 2026.