Florida Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Florida to finish 8-4 in 2026, with 8.1 expected wins. Up 1.3 wins from the preseason projection. Florida makes the 12-team Playoff in 9% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Florida a 2% chance to win the SEC outright. The model has picked 3 of 6 Florida games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Florida earns a first-round bye in 1% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Florida. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5Won66-21
- Week 2Sat Sep 12
vs CampbellWon52-3 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
at AuburnWon44-39 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
vs Ole MissWon52-28 - Week 5Sat Oct 3
at MissouriLost17-45 - Week 6Sat Oct 10Lost19-38
- Week 7Sat Oct 17
at TexasWon27-24 - Week 9Sat Oct 31
34% chance Florida wins - Week 10Sat Nov 7
vs Oklahoma62% chance Florida wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
at Kentucky45% chance Florida wins - Week 12Sat Nov 21
vs Vanderbilt89% chance Florida wins - Week 13Fri Nov 2779% chance Florida wins
How many games Florida wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 8-4 (39% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 6.8 in the preseason to 8.1 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.