Kentucky vs LSU Prediction: Will LSU Cover -9.5?
Early projections. Games after Tuesday night may be updated on Wednesday.
Backdoor Cover’s model projects LSU -8.00 for LSU at Kentucky, 1.5 points off the market’s LSU -9.5, and gives LSU a 69% win probability.
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What this tells us
My model is less bullish on LSU than the market is. I have them winning by 8 points with a 69% win probability, but the market has them favored by 9.5, so the market thinks they're the stronger play.
The model's side at the current line. It isn't a bet. I only bet a small share of the model's picks.
About this gap
Games with a gap under 3 points covered 51.4% of the time in the backtest (883 games).
| Model vs market | Cover % | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 0–3 pts (this game) | 51.4% | 883 |
| 3–6 pts | 53.9% | 616 |
| 6–10 pts | 54.6% | 401 |
| 10+ pts | 53.0% | 181 |
Backtest: every game, weeks 2+ of 2023–25.
Weather at kickoff
No significant weather expected.
How the number is built
The model rates every FBS team on efficiency, adjusted for opponent, and refits every week. It predicts a score, which becomes a spread and a total. Backdoor Cover Picks are the few games I bet.
My track record starts with the 2026 season. Picks are posted before kickoff and graded once the game finishes.
Common questions
Who does the model project to win Kentucky vs LSU?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects LSU to win, with a 69% win probability.
What is the model’s predicted spread for LSU at Kentucky?
The model projects LSU -8.00 and the market has LSU -9.5, a gap of 1.5 points.
What side does the model favor against the spread?
Kentucky +9.5, at the current number. Backdoor Cover Picks may still pass on this game.
How the model is doing. 142–128–1 against the spread (52.6%), 69–45 on totals (60.5%) and 208–63 straight up (76.8%) on every game this season.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Is LSU at Kentucky one of my picks? Subscribers see whether I’m betting it, and if so the side, the line and a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.