Kentucky Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Kentucky to finish 9-3 in 2026, with 9.2 expected wins. Up 5.3 wins from the preseason projection. Kentucky makes the 12-team Playoff in 69% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Kentucky a 11% chance to win the SEC outright. The model has picked 4 of 7 Kentucky games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
My model’s projected bracket has Kentucky as the 7 seed, going out in the first round to 10-seed BYU (35% for Kentucky in that game). Kentucky earns a first-round bye in 24% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Kentucky. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
vs Youngstown StateWon45-13 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
vs AlabamaLost17-45 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
at Texas A&MWon31-21 - Week 4Sat Sep 26Won45-21
- Week 5Sat Oct 3Won35-34
- Week 6Sat Oct 10
vs LSUWon35-34 - Week 7Sat Oct 17
at OklahomaWon21-13 - Week 8Sat Oct 24
vs VanderbiltWon34-17 - Week 10Sat Nov 7
at Tennessee50% chance Kentucky wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
vs Florida55% chance Kentucky wins - Week 12Sat Nov 21
at Missouri55% chance Kentucky wins - Week 13Sat Nov 28
vs Louisville59% chance Kentucky wins
How many games Kentucky wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 9-3 (37% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 3.9 in the preseason to 9.2 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.