Troy vs Southern Miss Prediction: Will Troy Cover -10?
Early projections. Games after Tuesday night may be updated on Wednesday.
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Troy -2.62 for Southern Miss at Troy, 7.4 points off the market’s Troy -10, and gives Troy a 57% win probability.
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What this tells us
My model is less bullish on Troy than the market is. I've got them winning by 3 points, but the market has them favored by 10, so there's a meaningful gap between the two. Both of us agree Troy wins the game, just not by the same margin.
The model's side at the current line. It isn't a bet. I only bet a small share of the model's picks.
About this gap
Games with a 6 to 10 point gap covered 54.6% of the time in the backtest (401 games).
| Model vs market | Cover % | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 0–3 pts | 51.4% | 883 |
| 3–6 pts | 53.9% | 616 |
| 6–10 pts (this game) | 54.6% | 401 |
| 10+ pts | 53.0% | 181 |
Backtest: every game, weeks 2+ of 2023–25.
Weather at kickoff
No significant weather expected.
How the number is built
The model rates every FBS team on efficiency, adjusted for opponent, and refits every week. It predicts a score, which becomes a spread and a total. Backdoor Cover Picks are the few games I bet.
My track record starts with the 2026 season. Picks are posted before kickoff and graded once the game finishes.
Common questions
Who does the model project to win Troy vs Southern Miss?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Troy to win, with a 57% win probability.
What is the model’s predicted spread for Southern Miss at Troy?
The model projects Troy -2.62 and the market has Troy -10, a gap of 7.4 points.
What side does the model favor against the spread?
Southern Miss +10, at the current number. Backdoor Cover Picks may still pass on this game.
Recent meetings
How the model is doing. 142–128–1 against the spread (52.6%), 69–45 on totals (60.5%) and 208–63 straight up (76.8%) on every game this season.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Is Southern Miss at Troy one of my picks? Subscribers see whether I’m betting it, and if so the side, the line and a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.
Season predictions: Southern Miss and Troy.
Published Oct 6, 2026. Numbers refreshed Oct 6, 2026.