How many games will Southern Miss win in 2026?

The model's expected win total for Southern Miss is 4.6 wins.

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Sun Belt · 2026 outlook · updated Sep 8, 2026

Southern Miss Football 2026 Season Prediction

Q: What is Southern Miss's projected record for 2026?

Backdoor Cover's statistical model projects Southern Miss to finish 5-7 in 2026, about 4.6 expected wins.

Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Southern Miss to finish 5-7 in 2026, with 4.6 expected wins. That’s up 0.7 wins from our preseason number.

5-7

projected record

4.6 ▲0.7 vs preseason

win total (expected wins)

Our statistical model projects Southern Miss to finish 5-7 in 2026, with 4.6 expected wins. The model gives Southern Miss a 0% chance to win the Sun Belt outright.

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Game-by-game

Played games show the result and whether the model called it (✓/✗). Upcoming games show win probability.

Week	Opponent	Result / win prob
Wk 1	vs Alcorn State	93%
Wk 2	@ Auburn	6%
Wk 3	vs UConn	20%
Wk 4	@ Tulane	15%
Wk 6	@ Troy	29%
Wk 7	vs Arkansas State	95%
Wk 8	vs Louisiana	15%
Wk 9	@ UL Monroe	94%
Wk 10	vs James Madison	11%
Wk 11	@ Louisiana Tech	7%
Wk 12	vs South Alabama	57%
Wk 13	@ Old Dominion	13%

Win-total distribution

2 wins

3 wins

15%

4 wins

33%

5 wins

30%

6 wins

15%

7 wins

8 wins

What subscribers get

Everything above is the free model. Southern Miss has a 0% shot at the Sun Belt title game in the model. Subscribers get the full picture — and the picks we actually bet.

This week’s picks

Our actual bet card — every spread and underdog, with the unit size we’re using.

The full interactive projections

Southern Miss’s conference title odds, the projected 12-team playoff bracket, and week-by-week movement.

Full prediction exports

Every game’s projected spread and win probability, downloadable as a CSV.

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The record you’re buying into

53–21

ATS since Week 8, 2025

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More: Sun Belt projections · all 2026 team predictions · this week’s games · track record

Projections are model output for informational and entertainment purposes only. Not betting advice. You must be 21 or older, or the legal age where you are. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.