Southern Miss Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Southern Miss to finish 4-8 in 2026, with 4.0 expected wins. Southern Miss makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Southern Miss a <1% chance to win the Sun Belt outright. The model has picked 5 of 6 Southern Miss games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Southern Miss earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Southern Miss. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
vs Alcorn StateWon49-3 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
at AuburnLost8-43 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
vs UConnLost20-48 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
at TulaneLost21-24 - Week 6Tue Oct 6
at TroyLost34-55 - Week 7Sat Oct 17Lost13-23
- Week 8Sat Oct 24
vs LouisianaWon35-31 - Week 9Sat Oct 31
at UL Monroe67% chance Southern Miss wins - Week 10Thu Nov 516% chance Southern Miss wins
- Week 11Sat Nov 1415% chance Southern Miss wins
- Week 12Sat Nov 2153% chance Southern Miss wins
- Week 13Sat Nov 28
at Old Dominion50% chance Southern Miss wins
How many games Southern Miss wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 4-8 (39% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 3.9 in the preseason to 4.0 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.