Troy Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Troy to finish 5-7 in 2026, with 4.7 expected wins. Down 2.8 wins from the preseason projection. Troy makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Troy a <1% chance to win the Sun Belt outright. The model has picked 4 of 6 Troy games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Troy earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Troy. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
vs Sam HoustonWon24-21 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
vs Alabama StateWon34-17 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
at MissouriLost17-27 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
at Utah StateLost10-21 - Week 6Tue Oct 6Won55-34
- Week 7Sat Oct 17
at LouisianaLost6-33 - Week 8Sat Oct 24
vs UL MonroeLost14-21 - Week 9Thu Oct 2911% chance Troy wins
- Week 10Sat Nov 738% chance Troy wins
- Week 11Sat Nov 1450% chance Troy wins
- Week 12Sat Nov 2144% chance Troy wins
- Week 13Sat Nov 2828% chance Troy wins
How many games Troy wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 5-7 (35% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 7.5 in the preseason to 4.7 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.