South Florida Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects South Florida to finish 8-4 in 2026, with 8.4 expected wins. Down 0.7 wins from the preseason projection. South Florida makes the 12-team Playoff in <1% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives South Florida a 2% chance to win the American Athletic outright. The model has picked 3 of 6 South Florida games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
South Florida earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for South Florida. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5Won19-9
- Week 2Sat Sep 12
at ArmyWon28-24 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
vs Delaware StateWon59-17 - Week 4Sat Sep 26Won14-6
- Week 5Sat Oct 3
vs TempleLost13-17 - Week 6Thu Oct 8
at UTSALost24-31 - Week 7Sat Oct 17
vs Kent StateWon29-2 - Week 9Sat Oct 31
vs UAB87% chance South Florida wins - Week 10Fri Nov 664% chance South Florida wins
- Week 11Thu Nov 12
vs Memphis61% chance South Florida wins - Week 12Sat Nov 2160% chance South Florida wins
- Week 13Fri Nov 27
vs Tulane71% chance South Florida wins
How many games South Florida wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 9-3 (35% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 9.1 in the preseason to 8.4 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.