How many games will UTSA win in 2026?

The model's expected win total for UTSA is 9.6 wins.

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American Athletic · 2026 outlook · updated Sep 8, 2026

UTSA Football 2026 Season Prediction

Q: What is UTSA's projected record for 2026?

Backdoor Cover's statistical model projects UTSA to finish 10-2 in 2026, about 9.6 expected wins.

Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects UTSA to finish 10-2 in 2026, with 9.6 expected wins. That’s up 2.1 wins from our preseason number.

10-2

projected record

9.6 ▲2.1 vs preseason

win total (expected wins)

Our statistical model projects UTSA to finish 10-2 in 2026, with 9.6 expected wins. The model gives UTSA a 46% chance to win the American Athletic outright.

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Game-by-game

Played games show the result and whether the model called it (✓/✗). Upcoming games show win probability.

Week	Opponent	Result / win prob
Wk 1	vs UT Rio Grande Valley	93%
Wk 2	@ Texas State	88%
Wk 3	@ Texas	6%
Wk 4	vs Colorado State	86%
Wk 5	@ Rice	85%
Wk 6	vs South Florida	78%
Wk 7	vs Navy	72%
Wk 8	@ Tulane	78%
Wk 10	@ Florida Atlantic	99%
Wk 11	vs North Texas	96%
Wk 12	@ UAB	98%
Wk 13	vs Tulsa	83%

Win-total distribution

6 wins

7 wins

8 wins

11%

9 wins

26%

10 wins

36%

11 wins

22%

12 wins

What subscribers get

Everything above is the free model. UTSA has a 74% shot at the American Athletic title game in the model. Subscribers get the full picture — and the picks we actually bet.

This week’s picks

Our actual bet card — every spread and underdog, with the unit size we’re using.

The full interactive projections

UTSA’s conference title odds, the projected 12-team playoff bracket, and week-by-week movement.

Full prediction exports

Every game’s projected spread and win probability, downloadable as a CSV.

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The record you’re buying into

53–21

ATS since Week 8, 2025

71.6% on the filtered picks

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More: American Athletic projections · all 2026 team predictions · this week’s games · track record

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