UTSA Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects UTSA to finish 9-3 in 2026, with 9.3 expected wins. Up 1.8 wins from the preseason projection. UTSA makes the 12-team Playoff in 19% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives UTSA a 14% chance to win the American Athletic outright. The model has picked 5 of 7 UTSA games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
UTSA earns a first-round bye in <1% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for UTSA. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
vs UT Rio Grande ValleyWon45-16 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
at Texas StateWon31-26 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
at TexasLost6-30 - Week 4Sat Sep 26Won59-45
- Week 5Sat Oct 3
at RiceWon16-14 - Week 6Thu Oct 8Won31-24
- Week 7Sat Oct 17
vs NavyWon38-34 - Week 8Sat Oct 24
at TulaneWon42-19 - Week 10Thu Nov 560% chance UTSA wins
- Week 11Sat Nov 14
vs North Texas44% chance UTSA wins - Week 12Sat Nov 21
at UAB64% chance UTSA wins - Week 13Sat Nov 28
vs Tulsa58% chance UTSA wins
How many games UTSA wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 9-3 (37% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 7.5 in the preseason to 9.3 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.