BYU vs Arizona State Prediction: Will BYU Cover -16.5?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects BYU -24.9 for Arizona State at BYU, 8.5 points off the market’s BYU -16.5, and gives BYU a 94% win probability.
What this tells us
My model is more bullish on BYU than the market is. I have them winning by 25 points with a 94% win probability, while the market has them favored by only 16.5. Both sides agree BYU wins, but I'm a lot higher on them.
The matchup
Offense
Defense
About this gap
Games with a 6 to 10 point gap covered 54.6% of the time in the backtest (401 games).
this game
Dashed line: 50%. Solid line: 52.4%, break-even at -110. Backtest: every game, weeks 2+ of 2023–25. Games per row: 883, 616, 401, 181.
Line movement
Weather at kickoff
No significant weather expected.
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Common questions
Who does the model project to win BYU vs Arizona State?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects BYU to win, with a 94% win probability.
What is the model’s predicted spread for Arizona State at BYU?
The model projects BYU -24.9 and the market has BYU -16.5, a gap of 8.5 points.
What side does the model favor against the spread?
BYU -16.5, at the current number. Backdoor Cover Picks may still pass on this game.
How the number is built
The model rates every FBS team on efficiency, adjusted for opponent, and refits every week. It predicts a score, which becomes a spread and a total. Backdoor Cover Picks are the few games I bet.
My track record starts with the 2026 season. Picks are posted before kickoff and graded once the game finishes.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Is Arizona State at BYU one of my picks? Subscribers see whether I’m betting it, and if so the side, the line and a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.
Other Week 9 breakdowns
All Week 9 games
Season predictions: Arizona State and BYU.
Published Oct 28, 2026. Numbers refreshed Oct 28, 2026.