Indiana vs Minnesota Prediction: Will Indiana Cover -20.5?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Indiana -32.0 for Minnesota at Indiana, 11.5 points off the market’s Indiana -20.5, and gives Indiana a 98% win probability.
What this tells us
My model is more bullish on Indiana than the market is. I have them winning by 32 points with a 98% win probability, while the market has them favored by just 20.5. We're on the same side of the game, but I'm a lot more confident in how big Indiana's margin will be.
The matchup
Offense
Defense
About this gap
Games with a gap over 10 points covered 53.0% of the time in the backtest (181 games).
this game
Dashed line: 50%. Solid line: 52.4%, break-even at -110. Backtest: every game, weeks 2+ of 2023–25. Games per row: 883, 616, 401, 181.
Line movement
Weather at kickoff
No significant weather expected.
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Common questions
Who does the model project to win Indiana vs Minnesota?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Indiana to win, with a 98% win probability.
What is the model’s predicted spread for Minnesota at Indiana?
The model projects Indiana -32.0 and the market has Indiana -20.5, a gap of 11.5 points.
What side does the model favor against the spread?
Indiana -20.5, at the current number. Backdoor Cover Picks may still pass on this game.
How the number is built
The model rates every FBS team on efficiency, adjusted for opponent, and refits every week. It predicts a score, which becomes a spread and a total. Backdoor Cover Picks are the few games I bet.
My track record starts with the 2026 season. Picks are posted before kickoff and graded once the game finishes.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Is Minnesota at Indiana one of my picks? Subscribers see whether I’m betting it, and if so the side, the line and a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.
