How many games will Minnesota win in 2026?

The model's expected win total for Minnesota is 7.1 wins.

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Big Ten · 2026 outlook · updated Sep 8, 2026

Minnesota Football 2026 Season Prediction

Q: What is Minnesota's projected record for 2026?

Backdoor Cover's statistical model projects Minnesota to finish 7-5 in 2026, about 7.1 expected wins.

Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Minnesota to finish 7-5 in 2026, with 7.1 expected wins. That’s up 1.5 wins from our preseason number.

7-5

projected record

7.1 ▲1.5 vs preseason

win total (expected wins)

Our statistical model projects Minnesota to finish 7-5 in 2026, with 7.1 expected wins. The model gives Minnesota a 0% chance to win the Big Ten outright.

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Game-by-game

Played games show the result and whether the model called it (✓/✗). Upcoming games show win probability.

Week	Opponent	Result / win prob
Wk 1	vs Eastern Illinois	93%
Wk 2	vs Mississippi State	78%
Wk 3	vs Akron	98%
Wk 4	@ Washington	21%
Wk 5	vs Michigan	58%
Wk 6	@ Purdue	76%
Wk 8	vs Iowa	28%
Wk 9	@ Indiana	10%
Wk 10	vs UCLA	72%
Wk 11	@ Penn State	13%
Wk 12	vs Northwestern	72%
Wk 13	@ Wisconsin	94%

Win-total distribution

4 wins

5 wins

6 wins

21%

7 wins

30%

8 wins

25%

9 wins

11%

10 wins

What subscribers get

Everything above is the free model. Minnesota has a 0% shot at the Big Ten title game in the model. Subscribers get the full picture — and the picks we actually bet.

This week’s picks

Our actual bet card — every spread and underdog, with the unit size we’re using.

The full interactive projections

Minnesota’s conference title odds, the projected 12-team playoff bracket, and week-by-week movement.

Full prediction exports

Every game’s projected spread and win probability, downloadable as a CSV.

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The record you’re buying into

53–21

ATS since Week 8, 2025

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More: Big Ten projections · all 2026 team predictions · this week’s games · track record

Projections are model output for informational and entertainment purposes only. Not betting advice. You must be 21 or older, or the legal age where you are. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.