Minnesota Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Minnesota to finish 6-6 in 2026, with 5.8 expected wins. Up 0.2 wins from the preseason projection. Minnesota makes the 12-team Playoff in <1% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Minnesota a 0% chance to win the Big Ten outright. The model has picked 2 of 6 Minnesota games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Minnesota earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Minnesota. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Thu Sep 3
vs Eastern IllinoisWon59-7 - Week 2Sat Sep 12Lost13-38
- Week 3Sat Sep 19
vs AkronWon41-7 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
at WashingtonWon27-24 - Week 5Sat Oct 3
vs MichiganWon20-14 - Week 6Sat Oct 10
at PurdueLost13-41 - Week 8Sat Oct 24
vs IowaWon13-10 - Week 9Sat Oct 31
at Indiana2% chance Minnesota wins - Week 10Sat Nov 7
vs UCLA16% chance Minnesota wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
at Penn State16% chance Minnesota wins - Week 12Sat Nov 21
vs Northwestern27% chance Minnesota wins - Week 13Fri Nov 27
at Wisconsin14% chance Minnesota wins
How many games Minnesota wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 5-7 (43% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 5.6 in the preseason to 5.8 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.