Texas vs Mississippi State Prediction: Will Texas Cover -20.5?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Texas -17.1 for Mississippi State at Texas, 3.4 points off the market’s Texas -20.5, and gives Texas a 86% win probability.
What this tells us
My model is less bullish on Texas than the market is. It still has them winning comfortably at 86 percent, but the market is laying more points, which means it's more confident in Texas than I am.
The matchup
Offense
Defense
About this gap
Games with a 3 to 6 point gap covered 53.9% of the time in the backtest (616 games).
this game
Dashed line: 50%. Solid line: 52.4%, break-even at -110. Backtest: every game, weeks 2+ of 2023–25. Games per row: 883, 616, 401, 181.
Line movement
Weather at kickoff
No significant weather expected.
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Common questions
Who does the model project to win Texas vs Mississippi State?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Texas to win, with a 86% win probability.
What is the model’s predicted spread for Mississippi State at Texas?
The model projects Texas -17.1 and the market has Texas -20.5, a gap of 3.4 points.
What side does the model favor against the spread?
Mississippi State +20.5, at the current number. Backdoor Cover Picks may still pass on this game.
How the number is built
The model rates every FBS team on efficiency, adjusted for opponent, and refits every week. It predicts a score, which becomes a spread and a total. Backdoor Cover Picks are the few games I bet.
My track record starts with the 2026 season. Picks are posted before kickoff and graded once the game finishes.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Is Mississippi State at Texas one of my picks? Subscribers see whether I’m betting it, and if so the side, the line and a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.
Other Week 9 breakdowns
All Week 9 games
Season predictions: Mississippi State and Texas.
Published Oct 28, 2026. Numbers refreshed Oct 28, 2026.