Notre Dame Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Notre Dame to finish 10-2 in 2026, with 10.4 expected wins. Down 1.0 wins from the preseason projection. Notre Dame makes the 12-team Playoff in 90% of my simulated seasons.
The model has picked 6 of 7 Notre Dame games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
My model’s projected bracket has Notre Dame as the 5 seed, going out in the semifinals to 1-seed Ohio State (48% for Notre Dame in that game). Notre Dame earns a first-round bye in 26% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Notre Dame. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sun Sep 6
Won41-13 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
vs RiceWon52-0 - Week 3Sat Sep 19Won27-10
- Week 4Sat Sep 26
at PurdueWon49-10 - Week 5Sat Oct 3Won37-26
- Week 6Sat Oct 10
vs StanfordWon58-7 - Week 7Sat Oct 17
at BYULost24-28 - Week 9Sat Oct 31
98% chance Notre Dame wins - Week 10Sat Nov 7
vs Miami65% chance Notre Dame wins - Week 11Sat Nov 1497% chance Notre Dame wins
- Week 12Sat Nov 21
vs SMU83% chance Notre Dame wins - Week 13Sat Nov 28
at Syracuse95% chance Notre Dame wins
How many games Notre Dame wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 11-1 (48% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 11.4 in the preseason to 10.4 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.