How many games will Navy win in 2026?

The model's expected win total for Navy is 8.0 wins.

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American Athletic · 2026 outlook · updated Sep 8, 2026

Navy Football 2026 Season Prediction

Q: What is Navy's projected record for 2026?

Backdoor Cover's statistical model projects Navy to finish 8-4 in 2026, about 8.0 expected wins.

Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Navy to finish 8-4 in 2026, with 8.0 expected wins. That’s up 0.3 wins from our preseason number.

8-4

projected record

8.0 ▲0.3 vs preseason

win total (expected wins)

Our statistical model projects Navy to finish 8-4 in 2026, with 8.0 expected wins. The model gives Navy a 14% chance to win the American Athletic outright.

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Game-by-game

Played games show the result and whether the model called it (✓/✗). Upcoming games show win probability.

Week	Opponent	Result / win prob
Wk 1	vs Towson	93%
Wk 2	@ Florida Atlantic	93%
Wk 4	@ UAB	99%
Wk 5	@ Air Force	41%
Wk 6	vs Tulsa	78%
Wk 7	@ UTSA	28%
Wk 8	vs North Texas	89%
Wk 9	vs Notre Dame	2%
Wk 10	vs Temple	88%
Wk 12	vs Memphis	70%
Wk 13	@ Charlotte	99%
Wk 15	@ Army	22%

Win-total distribution

5 wins

6 wins

7 wins

22%

8 wins

34%

9 wins

25%

10 wins

11 wins

What subscribers get

Everything above is the free model. Navy has a 34% shot at the American Athletic title game in the model. Subscribers get the full picture — and the picks we actually bet.

This week’s picks

Our actual bet card — every spread and underdog, with the unit size we’re using.

The full interactive projections

Navy’s conference title odds, the projected 12-team playoff bracket, and week-by-week movement.

Full prediction exports

Every game’s projected spread and win probability, downloadable as a CSV.

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The record you’re buying into

53–21

ATS since Week 8, 2025

71.6% on the filtered picks

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More: American Athletic projections · all 2026 team predictions · this week’s games · track record

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