Navy Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Navy to finish 5-7 in 2026, with 4.5 expected wins. Down 3.2 wins from the preseason projection. Navy makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Navy a 0% chance to win the American Athletic outright. The model has picked 4 of 6 Navy games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Navy earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Navy. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
vs TowsonWon42-15 - Week 2Sat Sep 12Lost30-38
- Week 4Fri Sep 25
at UABLost20-24 - Week 5Sat Oct 3
at Air ForceLost9-14 - Week 6Sat Oct 10
vs TulsaWon34-26 - Week 7Sat Oct 17
at UTSALost34-38 - Week 8Sat Oct 24
vs North TexasLost39-49 - Week 9Sat Oct 31
2% chance Navy wins - Week 10Sat Nov 7
vs Temple68% chance Navy wins - Week 12Sat Nov 21
vs Memphis50% chance Navy wins - Week 13Sat Nov 28
at Charlotte85% chance Navy wins - Week 15Sat Dec 12
50% chance Navy wins
How many games Navy wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 5-7 (38% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 7.7 in the preseason to 4.5 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.